Capacity of the Ukrainian defense industry may reach $60 billion by end of 2026
Ukraine's main export may not be a specific type of weapon, but rather a war-tested model of how to use it.
Serhiy Pashynsky, chairman of the National Association of the Defense Industry of Ukraine, made this statement in a special project by RBC-Ukraine, according to Censor.NET.
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"We shouldn't just sell hardware. We should sell security," Pashinsky emphasized.
This is a comprehensive solution that, in addition to weapons, encompasses intelligence, software, operator training, the integration of various assets into a single system, and the continuous updating of tactics.
"In any normal defense contract, the cost of weapons and ammunition accounts for only 50 percent. The other 50 percent is training, implementation, and deployment. We can not only sell weapons, but also provide training and advice," said the head of NAUDI.
The Black Sea serves as an example of this approach. Ukraine, lacking a traditional navy comparable to Russia’s, combined "Neptune" missiles, maritime drones, reconnaissance, and operational planning. The Russian navy was forced to retreat to remote bases, and Ukraine restored the maritime corridor without Russian involvement.
The potential for entering foreign markets is already in place. At the end of 2025, the production capacity of the Ukrainian defense industry was estimated at $35 billion per year, while available funding covered no more than one-third of that amount.
By the end of 2026, the industry’s potential could grow to $60 billion. More than $35 billion of that amount could come from the production of long-range weapons. Without additional funding, companies will not be able to fully utilize their existing production capacity.
Access to capital for the private sector remains a separate issue. According to data cited by Pashynsky, the government invested 60 billion hryvnia in the defense industry’s fixed assets, but private manufacturers did not receive any of these funds.
One source of funding and additional orders could be the controlled export of products that enterprises are capable of producing in excess of the Defense Forces’ funded needs.
However, a fully functioning mechanism for arms exports has not yet been established. Manufacturers lack transparent and predictable rules that would allow them to plan deliveries, enter into long-term contracts, and attract investment.
"As of today, we have no effective mechanisms for implementing these programs—there are no exports," said the head of NAUDI.
According to manufacturers, export controls should not apply to weapons needed by the Ukrainian military. This refers to products for which there are no state-funded orders or that companies can produce in excess of the current needs of the Defense Forces.
Access to foreign markets would allow us to keep production lines running, retain our engineering teams, and allocate additional resources to the development of new weapons models.
"If we don't enter these markets now, no one will be waiting for us there after the war," Pashinsky emphasized.
