Ukraine’s population has fallen to 28.5 million – Institute of Demography
As of mid-2026, 28.5 million people lived in Ukraine. Demographers say the loss of half a million residents was caused mainly by people leaving the country rather than by deaths.
Ella Libanova said this at the 10th Ukrainian Women’s Congress, Censor.NET reports, citing Ukrinform.
Ukraine’s population
According to Libanova, specialists completed the estimate for mid-2026 a few days ago.
- Like the previous estimate, the new figure covers government-controlled territory. The previous joint estimate by the State Statistics Service and the Institute of Demography was about 29 million people in July 2026. To calculate it, specialists compared data from three mobile operators with state registers, accounting for internally displaced people. The margin of error may have been about 300,000.
"We completed our estimate of the population at mid-year (in 2026), just a few days ago: 28.5 million. We have lost half a million people. Thank God, this is due more to people leaving than to deaths. Why do I say ‘thank God’? Because, whatever the circumstances, these people are still alive," Libanova said.
According to the researcher, migration, both within Ukraine and abroad, remains the main factor in current demographic trends.
Possible new wave of male migration after the war
Libanova stressed that she was more concerned about what might happen after martial law is lifted than about migration now.
She forecasts that Ukraine could face another wave of departures, including men travelling abroad to join their families.
"What concerns me about migration is not so much what is happening now as what will happen after martial law is lifted, when men are able to leave and when they return from the front. We will not be able to offer them jobs and salaries they consider decent. That raises the question: where will Ukrainian families reunite, in Ukraine or abroad? I am very afraid that there will be a second, so-called male wave of migration. That is entirely possible. And it depends mainly, of course, on our military; there is no doubt about that, but also on all of us," she said.
