Ceasefire will embolden Putin, weaken Ukraine and lead to more fighting - Bloomberg
Under the current circumstances, a ceasefire will embolden Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, weaken Ukraine's defense capabilities, and lead to further fighting. The West needs a better plan.
This was reported by Censor.NET with reference to Bloomberg.
"As long as Putin believes he can survive the West's support for Ukraine, his war of attrition will continue. The question is how to change his calculation. Putin occasionally feigns interest in negotiations, but the price - Ukraine giving up its claims to the four regions he has illegally annexed and Crimea, as well as its hopes for NATO membership - betrays his insincerity. On the contrary, Russia's entire economy has been reoriented to support the war, it still buys weapons and technology from rogue states, and Putin's stated goal remains the same: Ukraine should be turned into a Russian vassal," the article says.
The publication emphasizes that no matter how desirable a ceasefire is, it will entail huge risks for Ukraine.
Possible risks for Ukraine in case of a "ceasefire"
On the one hand, a pause would give the Russian army time to recruit replacements for the roughly 30,000 soldiers it loses every month, plan a new mobilization, fix operational shortcomings, and replenish its weapons stockpile.
"Putin is likely to use such a truce to simply plan new attacks, as he has done repeatedly in the past - including after his previous invasion of Ukraine in 2014," Bloomberg journalists believe.
This risk is exacerbated by the fact that a pause could jeopardize international support for Ukraine, making it harder to defend against a strengthened Russia.
"Many Western allies are already looking for an excuse to divert funds from Ukraine to domestic needs; Germany, for example, is planning deep cuts in such aid in its budget for next year. The cessation of hostilities could be a plausible excuse," the newspaper writes.
It is noted that Putin has long been betting that the West will get tired of supporting Ukraine, that Russian society will remain passive, and that his army is well-funded enough to continue fighting.
The so-called "ceasefire" could increase the likelihood that all of these bets will come true - and leave both Ukraine and the West worse off when fighting resumes.
What should Ukraine's allies do?
Thus, the goal of the United States and its allies should be to provide Ukraine with maximum negotiating leverage before starting negotiations.
First, the West must recognize that any significant funding cuts at this point will not end the war - they will only embolden Putin. The West should continue to strengthen Ukraine's air defense capabilities, increase supplies of ammunition and other weapons, and lift most restrictions on the use of long-range missiles. Only a concerted effort of this kind is likely to change Putin's cost-benefit calculus," the article says.
Bloomberg also notes that the allies need to provide reliable security guarantees for Ukraine: a collective commitment to defend the territories currently under Ukrainian control.
"Throughout his bloody reign, Putin has always been ready to break truces, violate agreements, and go back on his word when he saw a strategic advantage. There is every reason to believe that he would do the same this time. Without proper precautions, the ceasefire will not end the war, save lives, or benefit ordinary Ukrainians. It will do the opposite," the agency summarizes.
