Trump seeks to make war Europe’s problem, but this war will haunt him, - Bloomberg
For US President Donald Trump, the moment has come when he realized that ending the war in Ukraine is not an easy task. And he was faced with a choice: to do the hard, dangerous work of finding a sustainable settlement or to simply step back and let the war take its terrible course. And it looks like he is choosing to run away instead of fight.
According to Censor.NET, Bloomberg Opinion columnist Hal Brands writes about this.
The author notes that Ukraine will have to deal with the US president for a long time, who wants only one thing - to be done with Ukraine.
Trump's choice became obvious after the latest fruitless negotiations
In early May, Zelenskyy and European leaders proposed an immediate ceasefire and tried to enlist Trump's support, who would have imposed powerful sanctions if Putin refused.
However, when Putin instead called for direct peace talks, Trump hastily supported the idea, even after the Russian leader refused to participate in the same talks in Turkey that he had proposed.
The result of Trump's two-hour phone call with Putin on May 19 was a meaningless agreement to seek a deal, as well as a reaffirmation of Russia's hardline stance that guarantees there will be no deal.
"Trump took office promising to end this war within 24 hours. He has consistently failed because of two fundamental and increasingly obvious facts," Brands writes.
In his opinion, firstly, the US president has misidentified the essence of the problem, believing that it is caused by Ukraine's intransigence, not by Putin's unwillingness to allow the country to remain territorially integral and independent in the geopolitical sense. And secondly, there can be no compromise at this stage.
"The war will continue either until Ukraine's complete surrender and its transformation into a dismembered, disarmed Russian colony, or until Putin decides the price of victory is too high," Brands said.
Putin has a strategy to achieve his goal
The Russian army will gradually destroy Ukraine's resilient but numerically weaker forces to exhaust them and eventually break their morale. In the meantime, Putin will continue to play along with Trump, never engaging in serious negotiations, but never abandoning them either. In this way, he will be able to see US military aid to Ukraine expire, probably this summer, while avoiding the anger that an outright rejection of Trump's proposals could cause.
At the same time, Brands notes that the West's strategy to thwart Putin's plans is no secret. It involves the continued supply of weapons from the United States and Europe to prevent Putin from continuing his offensive. This strategy also includes "crippling sanctions" - such as those proposed by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally - to reduce Russian oil sales and accelerate the economic crisis in Russia.
"In addition, the West should simultaneously strengthen Ukraine's program of strikes on the enemy's deep rear, financially support Kyiv's military efforts by confiscating frozen Russian state assets and transferring them to Ukraine. And finally, serious guarantees of European security, backed by American power, should be developed to keep any truce in place.
This strategy is not guaranteed to succeed, given Putin's high capacity for pain. However, it is the best, and perhaps the only, way to convince Putin that he cannot simply sit out his enemies. Unfortunately, even under normal circumstances, this strategy would have been difficult - and Trump has made it even more difficult to implement," the columnist argues.
This time, running away will not save Trump
"Trump's attitude toward NATO and his hostility toward Ukraine make the issue of security guarantees almost intractable. But most importantly, Trump cannot move to a more decisive strategy because to do so would require him to make the war in Ukraine, which he relentlessly refers to as "Joe Biden's war," his own," adds Brands.
From the very beginning, Trump has harshly criticized America's involvement in the war in Ukraine, arguing that Washington is wasting money and risking provoking World War III. So changing course and truly punishing Putin would require Trump to support a cause he never believed in.
It would also mean overcoming his habit of simply retreating in the face of difficult challenges-as he did with North Korea's nuclear program in his first term or the war in Ukraine in his second-that he cannot quickly resolve.
This time, however, running away will not save Trump. He touts the imaginary prospects of economic deals with Putin, but if the US backs away from Ukraine, the best we can hope for is a protracted conflict with a militarized Russia under sanctions and refineries under constant attack, which is unlikely to attract American business.
In the worst case scenario, Ukraine's position will gradually weaken, and then the situation will rapidly deteriorate, ending in either a complete defeat or an imposed "peace" at gunpoint.
"The Americans did not like the combination of human tragedy and strategic humiliation in Afghanistan - and they are unlikely to like it any more if something similar happens in Ukraine. This war may come back to haunt Trump, even if he insists that it does not concern him," the columnist concluded.
