Dangerous activity observed at border with Belarus, but invasion not expected for now, Defense Minister’s adviser Beskrestnov says
Ukraine does not see Belarus or Russia preparing for a new offensive from the northern direction, although some activity on the territory of the neighboring state remains.
As Censor.NET reports, Serhii Beskrestnov (Flash), an adviser to Ukraine’s Minister of Defense, wrote this on social media.
What the Ministry of Defense says
According to Beskrestnov, Ukrainian intelligence is constantly monitoring the situation in the Belarusian direction, and the Defense Forces are ready for various scenarios.
"Yes, we are recording activity that may pose a threat to us or European countries in the future. No, we do not see readiness to attack us, relatively speaking, ‘tomorrow’," the defense minister’s adviser said.
He stressed that Ukraine has a sufficient number of fortifications and troops to repel possible aggression.
Why an invasion is unlikely
Beskrestnov believes that even if a new front were opened from Belarusian territory, its main goal could be to distract part of Ukrainian forces or to use Belarusian territory to launch missiles and drones.
At the same time, he is convinced that a repeat of the 2022 full-scale invasion scenario is unlikely.
"A global invasion in the 2022 format will not happen again. The war has changed. Any column of equipment would not last even a few hours," he stressed.
What border guards and analysts say
Earlier, State Border Guard Service spokesman Andrii Demchenko denied claims by Alexander Lukashenko’s regime about alleged regular flights of Ukrainian drones over Belarusian territory.
Meanwhile, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russia and Belarus may be creating information conditions for launching Russian drones at Ukraine from Belarusian territory. At the same time, analysts have not recorded a concentration of troops sufficient for a ground invasion.
The ISW report also says that Russia currently does not have the necessary reserves to support a possible offensive from Belarus.
