Kremlin pressures Lukashenko to open new front against Ukraine, - WSJ
Moscow has stepped up pressure on Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, insisting that Belarusian territory be used to expand military operations against Ukraine. The Kremlin is also considering the possibility of using Belarus as a launchpad for drones and conducting hybrid operations against NATO countries.
This was reported by Censor.NET, citing The Wall Street Journal.
Moscow is putting pressure on Minsk
The article notes that Moscow has been steadily increasing pressure on Minsk since the beginning of the year. Against the backdrop of a slowdown in Russian troops’ offensive operations in Donbas, the Kremlin is seeking new ways to escalate the situation and create additional flashpoints.
According to U.S. and European officials, Russia has a clear vision of how it can use Belarusian territory. Specifically, this involves regularly using it as a launch pad for drones targeting Ukrainian positions, opening up a new threat vector for Ukraine’s western regions, and forcing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to redeploy troops from key sections of the front in the east.
At the same time, Belarus could become a tool for carrying out provocations near the borders of NATO member states. According to sources, the Kremlin is seeking in this way to weaken international support for Ukraine and test the Alliance’s readiness to respond to such challenges. The publication notes that Russian drones were already spotted in Polish airspace last year, and such incidents may become a regular occurrence in the future.
Leverage
According to the publication, the Kremlin has a number of tools at its disposal to influence the Belarusian government, among which Minsk’s financial dependence on Moscow plays a key role. Former intelligence officials claim that Russia is actively using economic leverage to increase pressure on Lukashenko’s regime.
A significant portion of the contacts with the Belarusian leadership on behalf of the Kremlin is handled by Boris Gryzlov, the Russian ambassador to Belarus, who maintains direct contact with Lukashenko. According to sources, one of Moscow’s main arguments is the threat of cutting off financial support, on which the Belarusian government relies heavily to maintain economic and political stability.
What happened before that?
- President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently responded to the "apology" from Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko and gave Minsk one week to remove the equipment that the Russians are using to direct their attacks on Ukraine—otherwise, Kyiv will do it itself.
- Zelenskyy explained that this public ultimatum was the final step following a series of private warnings that the Belarusian side had ignored.
