Russia can no longer maintain previous pace of recruitment for war – Foreign Intelligence Service
Russia is seeing a decline in recruitment rates compared with previous periods. The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine has identified several features of this year’s campaign to replenish the Russian Armed Forces with contract soldiers for participation in combat operations against Ukraine.
This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, according to Censor.NET.
What is the issue?
- Failure to meet the annual recruitment target of 409,000 people
It is noted that, as of early July, less than 50% of the contract recruitment target had been met. About 195,000 people had signed contracts against the planned figure of 204,500. The current average daily recruitment rate of contract soldiers (1,070–1,090 people) is insufficient to meet the target in full. This is the most significant difference between this year’s campaign and those of 2025 and 2024, when about 1,200 people signed contracts each day on average.
- Easing requirements for candidates (including medical and functional requirements)
The aim is to expand the pool of potential recruits and reduce the time required to process and deploy them to frontline units of the Russian Armed Forces. Russia’s need for such measures is driven by its mounting battlefield losses. In the first half of the year, total personnel losses reached approximately 196,700, including 115,300 irrecoverable casualties, 80,400 medical casualties and about 1,000 prisoners of war. Consequently, the number of contract soldiers recruited into the Russian Armed Forces is effectively comparable to the number of personnel lost.
- High recruitment targets for members of Russia’s indigenous minorities and residents of Ukraine’s temporarily occupied territories, in violation of international law
Thus, in 2026, Russia plans to recruit about 7,900 residents of Ukraine’s temporarily occupied territories to participate in combat operations against Ukraine. Meanwhile, within Russia, the greatest burden (in quantitative terms) of meeting the 2025 and 2026 targets falls on the Central and Volga federal districts (92,000 and 90,000 people, respectively). At the same time, in the Volga Federal District, the highest recruitment targets have been set for the republics of Bashkortostan and Tatarstan (12,900 and 12,000 people, respectively). This demonstrates the Kremlin’s true attitude towards Russia’s indigenous peoples and residents of the "new" regions, whom it regards as expendable material for implementing its aggressive plans.
- Recruitment of students
The Russian Ministry of Defence and Ministry of Education have planned to recruit more than 50,000 students from higher education and secondary vocational institutions for contract military service. Despite unprecedented propaganda and administrative pressure, the overwhelming majority of students have expressed no desire to enter military service or participate in combat operations against Ukraine. Recruitment figures for this category fall far short of the targets: only one in 400 students agrees to enlist. Russia’s young people do not want to fight.
- Increase from 16,000 to 18,500 in the number of foreigners planned to be recruited for combat operations against Ukraine
To meet this target, Russia is actively using recruitment organisations that typically arrange for mercenaries to enter the country under the status of migrant workers. Moscow continues this recruitment despite protests from foreign partners. Potential candidates are often lured with promises of well-paid jobs in Russia, but upon arrival they are told that they personally signed a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defence.
Russia’s migration service and certain Russian law enforcement agencies extensively use blackmail and intimidation against migrant workers, mainly from Central Asian countries, forcing them to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defence. In some cases, they are offered the prospect of obtaining Russian citizenship through a simplified procedure after completing a certain period of contract service in the Russian Armed Forces. The Kremlin therefore regards this group as an important resource for replacing battlefield losses.
What are the conclusions?
The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine emphasises that this year’s situation indicates a decline in the Putin regime’s ability to continue maintaining recruitment rates at the level seen in previous periods.
