Ukraine has only few months to turn tide of war. We are now slowly losing – Fedorov
Former Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said that Ukraine appears to be gradually losing the war against Russia. He warned that Kyiv has a window of several months to make key decisions needed to turn the situation in its favour.
He said this in an interview with Reuters, Censor.NET reports.
The war and a peace plan
Fedorov said that Ukraine lacked a coherent vision of how to win the four-year conflict and that the country was being held back by its inability to innovate. According to him, entrenched corruption, patronage networks and the lack of political independence among state institutions were also hindering the country.
"I believe we have now reached a turning point that will determine our future trajectory, but it appears that we are gradually, slowly losing," Fedorov said.
He added that Ukraine still had "every chance" of winning but urgently needed a plan to end the war.
In response to Fedorov’s remarks, the Office of the President said that while working at the ministry, he had spoken positively about the course of the war and that the only thing that had changed was his personal status.
Technological vision
In the Reuters interview, Fedorov emphasised the importance of developing AI-controlled autonomous drones, low-cost interceptor missiles to counter Russia’s aerial attacks and Ukraine’s own ballistic missile programme to turn the tide of the war. According to him, Ukrainian manufacturers are already working on these technologies, but the country lacks a coordinated strategy to maximise their impact once deployed.
He described a vision of the front line covered with electronic sensors to detect the enemy, with ground and aerial drones used to minimise the presence of personnel.
"Technologies capable of stopping the Russians completely already exist, but because we lack a vision... we are not using them," he said, criticising the Ukrainian state’s untapped potential and inefficiency, which he estimated was operating at "5% effectiveness".
Dispute over the budget deficit
Fedorov claims that he was the driving force behind this year’s drone campaign targeting Russia’s fuel and military logistics in the occupied part of southern Ukraine, which created problems for Russian forces on the front line. According to him, there is still a window of several months to continue the operation and isolate occupied Crimea before Russia develops a response to Ukrainian tactics.
The strike campaign became a significant factor in changing the narrative surrounding Ukraine’s prospects. Fedorov previously said that the campaign’s success had been aided by his decision to bring forward spending earmarked for the second half of 2026.
- President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said a day earlier that bringing spending forward had left a $27 billion "hole" in the Defence Ministry’s budget, for which donor-dependent Ukraine currently has no solution.
Fedorov said that he did not know where Zelenskyy had obtained that figure, arguing that his Defence Ministry had developed a spending plan based on savings from new procurement tenders and international support. Fedorov also claimed that upon arriving at the Ministry of Defence, he discovered department heads who had been appointed at the request of Ukrainian defence companies to lobby for their interests.
"Under our planning, the budget deficit through the end of the year was around five billion dollars, and we knew where we would obtain the money. Perhaps the plan has changed, and new projects have emerged that require such a budget," he said.
Call for elections
According to Fedorov, despite the enormous logistical difficulties of holding elections during the war, Ukraine would find innovative solutions, although it was currently too early to say whether he would run for president.
Meanwhile, Fedorov plans to divide his time between advocating the resumption of elections in Ukraine and projects focused on innovative military technologies, including an investment fund for which he plans to raise capital during an upcoming trip to the United States.
