79% of Ukrainians believe Ukraine will win war, - KIIS poll
The overwhelming majority of Ukrainians—79%—believe that Ukraine will win the war. At the same time, over the past month and a half, the proportion of those who are absolutely certain of victory has dropped significantly—from 60% to 47%.
According to Censor.NET, this is evidenced by the results of a poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) from September 12 to 21, 2026.
According to sociologists, 47% of respondents firmly believe in Ukraine’s victory, while another 32% tend to believe that Ukraine will win. Seven percent of those surveyed predict a Russian victory, and 14% were undecided.
Compared to February 2025, the overall level of confidence in victory has remained virtually unchanged. However, at the end of July 2026, 85% of respondents believed in Ukraine’s victory, with 60% being absolutely certain of it.
Thus, by mid-September, the share of those absolutely certain of victory had fallen by 13 percentage points. Some of these respondents shifted to the category of those who "somewhat" believe in victory, while the share of those predicting a Russian victory increased slightly.
"Overall, the vast majority of Ukrainians still believe in victory, but that belief has become less certain in recent times," the KIIS noted.
How Ukrainians envision the end of the war
The largest share of respondents—41%—consider the most realistic scenario to be one in which Ukraine preserves its statehood and independence but is forced to accept territorial losses. In February 2025, 33% of those surveyed gave this response.
The KIIS explained that respondents largely perceive this option as a "freeze" of the war along the current front lines. However, the question did not imply official recognition of the occupied territories as part of Russia.
At the same time, a total of 53% of respondents chose scenarios that envisage the de-occupation of at least part of Ukrainian territories. In February 2025, that figure stood at 60%.
Specifically, 14% consider a return to the de facto borders by 2022 to be realistic, 4% support the de-occupation of the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and 23% favor the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity within its 1991 borders. Another 12% expect the full restoration of territorial integrity and the transfer of hostilities to Russian territory.
Survey methodology
KIIS conducted the survey from September 12 to 21 via telephone interviews. A total of 1,002 adult Ukrainian citizens residing in government-controlled territory participated in the survey.
The sample did not include citizens residing in temporarily occupied territories or Ukrainians who left the country after February 24, 2022. However, the respondents did include internally displaced persons.
Under normal circumstances, the maximum formal statistical margin of error for indicators close to 50% does not exceed 4.1%. KIIS notes that in wartime conditions, a systematic bias is added to this, but the results remain sufficiently representative for analyzing public sentiment.
