Winter without guarantees: what to expect regarding heating and electricity
Power outages have begun in Ukraine, although there is no shortage of electricity generation at this time. Power restrictions were implemented on October 6 in a number of regions due to damage to power transmission systems caused by Russian shelling.
Power cuts lasting 2–6 hours a day have been announced in the Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Odesa, Kherson and Kyiv regions, as well as in Kyiv. These were extended on 7 and 8 October.
At the same time, the situation regarding power generation remains relatively favourable for the time being. Although repairs are not yet complete at some large nuclear power stations, there is sufficient electricity generation.
Due to overcast weather, power generation from solar power stations has fallen, whilst consumption has risen slightly as the public has started using heating appliances. "But despite this, there is still a surplus of electricity," said a source familiar with the energy market speaking to Business Censor.
Relatively mild weather is set to continue until the end of the first ten days of October, so power supply issues are likely to be limited to specific regions due to localised damage to the grid. From the second ten days of the month, the weather will begin to deteriorate and, as the intensity of shelling increases, power supply problems may become more acute.
Overall, electricity consumption this winter is expected to be lower than last winter –15–15.5 GW at peak demand. Firstly, large industrial enterprises have reduced their consumption due to production stoppages. For example, "ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih" ceased operations entirely in September following four rocket attacks. Secondly, according to preliminary forecasts by meteorologists, this winter will be milder than last year’s.
The Ukrainian government is considering various scenarios for the heating season. No details have been disclosed, but the publication’s sources say that prolonged, total blackouts will be avoided.
Kyiv and Odesa are at particular risk
For Kyiv, for example, the worst-case scenario is a four-hour daily electricity supply. And this is assuming that all CHPPs cease generation. If temperatures drop to 10 degrees below zero, power cuts could last up to eight hours a day. Business Censor received this forecast from a source familiar with the plans.
Oleksandr Kharchenko, Director of the Centre for Energy Research, believes that this scenario can indeed be considered the most adverse for the capital. "This is the most pessimistic scenario for Kyiv. But I see no reason to believe that it could spread to the whole country," Kharchenko told Business Censor. In his view, the most difficult situation is likely to arise in the capital and the Odesa region.
"Kyiv and Odesa may suffer more than other cities due to a general energy shortage and targeted strikes on energy infrastructure," the expert believes.
Kyiv’s CHPP-5, CHPP-6 and the Darnytsia CHPP are not generating enough electricity. Moreover, during the heating season, they will operate primarily to supply heat. The main sources of power are the Rivne and Khmelnytskyi nuclear power stations. However, if the substations through which electricity is supplied to the capital are damaged, it will be very difficult to make up for the shortfall.
Other experts interviewed by Business Censor also identify Kyiv and Odesa as the cities where the most severe power supply issues are likely to arise due to the prospect of heavy shelling.
There will also be problems in settlements near the front line. There, under shelling conditions, emergency power cuts will be unavoidable. In other regions, there is currently no reason to anticipate serious, irreparable situations.
"Sufficient additional cogeneration capacity has been installed where necessary, so there should be no problems with water," noted Kharchenko.
The government is bracing for a difficult winter, but notes that it is better prepared for it. "Ukraine is entering this winter better prepared than last year," said Prime Minister Serhii Koretskyi.
Indeed, the volume of new generating capacity has increased, maximum second-level protection has been established for major energy facilities, and backup power has been secured for most critical infrastructure facilities. This has not only been publicly stated by government representatives and experts, but is also confirmed by the publication’s sources. However, the figures do not always match.
Back in July, the Ministry of Energy spoke of commissioning 1.8 GW of gas-fired generation. But according to the latest data from the energy market, the volume of such generation is lower. Moreover, a third of the announced volume consists not of generation capacity but of electricity storage capacity.
Resilience plans under threat
In preparing for the heating season, the government placed the main emphasis on resilience plans. Their implementation was intended to ensure the operation of critical infrastructure in the face of shelling and power cuts.
These plans began to be rolled out in March, but as of October, only 45 per cent had been implemented. However, Koretskyi considers the result to be entirely satisfactory. "The resilience plans were extremely ambitious at the time of their approval, and it is precisely this that has allowed us to significantly strengthen the system even without their full implementation," the Prime Minister stated.
However, the government unexpectedly decided to suspend funding for capital and non-priority expenditure from both the state and local budgets due to a lack of funds. This affected not only the improvement of parks and public spaces, but also projects to prepare for the heating season.
The decision did not affect national-scale projects preparing for winter. However, at the local level, the implementation of resilience plans is now at risk of collapse. The Association of Ukrainian Cities is calling on the government to unblock payments to local authorities as soon as possible.
"Payments for works and equipment for medical, educational and social institutions, preparations for the heating season and the implementation of resilience plans have been suspended. It is not possible to prepare resilience centres or repair infrastructure and energy facilities damaged by shelling," the AUC statement emphasises.
Oksana Prodan, an adviser to the head of the Association of Ukrainian Cities, told Business Censor that in one city, the suspension of payments has made it impossible to continue the restoration of the CHPP.
"It is not possible to use the money to pay for gas and electricity, or to complete the construction of shelters. I have spoken to several mayors, and they are not being allowed to use even loan funds, in particular from the EBRD," said Prodan.
The Cabinet of Ministers listened to the complaints from the regions and asked for patience.
"For our part, we are doing everything possible to resume essential expenditure as quickly as possible. To this end, it is critically important to secure international funding and fulfil all the necessary conditions for receiving assistance from our partners," noted Koretskyi following the meeting of the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities.
We may have to rely on gas for heating
There is less than a week to go before the official start of the heating season. Therefore, no significant improvement in preparations for the cold weather should be expected – what has been done has been done. The main thing is that, as a result of shelling, equipment that has already undergone several repairs does not break down completely.
Stocks of spare parts and materials for repairs have been built up and, for security reasons, are being stored not only within Ukraine. However, these stocks are not excessive. Moreover, the equipment being sent to Ukraine by partners in thousands of tonnes is not always suitable for repairs.
Hennadii Riabtsev, director of the ‘Psychea’ centre, says that no guarantees can be given for the winter. "We will enter the heating season in a better position than last year, but with no guarantees regarding the stability of the power grid," he noted in a comment to Business Censor.
The Russians, as before, are planning to ‘cut off’ major cities, including Kyiv, from the electricity supply and disable heating systems. Whilst Ukraine was preparing for winter, the Russians were not sitting idly by either. They have prepared a new campaign of strikes against Ukraine’s energy and water supply sectors, using up to 1,000 missiles, drones and aerial bombs.
The "Zakhidno-Ukrainska" substation in the Lviv region, which facilitates electricity imports from Europe, may be at risk. It has already been shelled on several occasions.
However, a source speaking to Business Censor, who is familiar with the actual state of preparations for winter, said that, thanks to alternative power generation, it will nevertheless be easier to cope with heating issues. "We may well be heating our homes with electricity and gas," he noted.
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Ukraine will enter the current heating season better prepared than it was last year. However, the risk of critical situations remains quite high. Getting through the winter will depend, first and foremost, on the effectiveness of Ukraine’s air defence and the ability to quickly repair damaged infrastructure. Amid constant alerts, repairs will be delayed. Consequently, the duration of power and heating cuts will effectively be determined in real time, depending on the consequences of the shelling.
