This year, real wages of Ukrainians will decrease by quarter, - NBU
According to the results of 2022, the real wages of Ukrainians will be reduced by a quarter. The NBU declares that the labor market has currently stabilized at a low level.
As Censor.NET informs, this is stated in the inflation report of the NBU.
"Unemployment will remain high for a long time due to the effects of the war and significant structural disparities. Despite some recovery in economic activity, most businesses are still operating well below pre-war employment levels.
A decrease in the output and income of enterprises, as well as the expectation of prolonged hostilities, restrain enterprises in their plans to increase the number of employees, as evidenced by data from job search sites. At the same time, enterprises do not experience a shortage of qualified workers," the report says.
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The National Bank emphasizes that the employer's market still dominates in Ukraine - although the number of vacancies has increased compared to March-April, it still remains two to three times (depending on the field of activity) less than it was before the full-scale aggression.
In particular, regional and sectoral disparities persist. Thus, in September, according to job search sites, Kyiv accounted for about 30% of all current vacancies in Ukraine. Currently, vacancies in the field of service, labor specialties and trade prevail.
The growth in the number of resumes has slowed somewhat due to the revival of labor demand, mobilization and migration abroad. However, the number of resumes still significantly exceeds last year's figures (by 1.5 times, according to job search sites).
"As a result, the load per vacancy (the ratio between the number of resumes and vacancies) is decreasing, but it is still significantly higher than the pre-war level. This indicates that Ukrainians are actively looking for work and confirms the NBU's assessment of the high level of unemployment," the NBU adds.
"In the future, the unemployment rate will gradually decrease, but will remain higher than its natural level due to the long-term effects of the war.
The recovery of economic activity will stimulate the growth of labor demand, but structural disparities in the labor market will remain for a long time. Due to the departure of a part of the skilled labor force abroad, there may be a noticeable shortage of workers in certain types of economic activity, for example, construction, which at the same time will determine the growth of salaries in the corresponding industries.
However, on the part of certain types of activities, the production capacities of which were most affected by the military actions, the demand for workers will remain relatively weak, which will accordingly slow down the process of reducing the unemployment rate," the NBU added.
At the same time, the NBU expects that nominal salaries will decrease by 12-13% this year, primarily at the expense of the private sector. In real terms, they will decrease by a quarter.
"In the future, the recovery of the economy will be accompanied by a revival of demand for labor and will take place against the background of significant disparities and a shortage of skilled labor in certain sectors. High rates of annual growth of nominal wages will return. Next year, they will exceed their pre-war level, but in real terms they will grow quite slowly due to high inflation.
At the same time, next year, according to the draft State Budget for 2023, the growth of social benefits will be restrained and correspond to the growth of the subsistence minimum. In the future, their increase will accelerate due to the increase in budget resources," the NBU summarized.
As a reminder, the unemployment rate in Ukraine at the end of 2022 will be 30%.
