Russia produces over 1,400 ballistic Iskanders and 500 Kh-101s per year - Economist
Russia may launch an aggression against NATO countries after rebuilding its army.
This is stated in the material of The Economist, Censor.NET reports.
The publication notes that for Putin, the war may not be so much an external threat as a continuation and attempt to legitimize his rule.
"In the 25 years he has been in power, he has fought five wars. Each of them began with a decline in his popularity; each ended with an increase in his authority," the author notes.
As long as Russia is fighting in Ukraine, it will not have spare ground forces to pose a serious threat to NATO, Polish expert Konrad Muzyka believes. Even if a ceasefire agreement is signed, Russia will not be able to release a large number of troops, as this could allow Ukraine to regain the occupied territories.
"So, Russia will have to create new troops. Western intelligence services have carefully studied how long it might take. Their conclusions vary considerably. America speaks of Russia rebuilding its army "within the next decade". Norwegian intelligence believes it will take five to ten years "at least." Ukraine's estimates are five to seven; Germany's five to eight. Estonian intelligence officials seem to be the least optimistic, giving Russia three to five years to create new formations, depending on the course of the war, the Russian economy, and whether sanctions remain in place," the article says.
At the same time, The Economist, citing data from the Royal United Services Institute for Defense Research (RUSI), claims that Russia is producing munitions at an extraordinary rate - more than 1,400 Iskander ballistic missiles per year, as well as 500 Kh-101 cruise missiles.
"But in other areas, the current production rates are not sustainable. Only 10-15% of the 1,500-2,000 tanks and 3,000 other armored combat vehicles produced annually are new. The rest are taken from old Soviet stockpiles. They could be exhausted by 2026 if the current rate of loss continues, according to Dara Massicott of the Carnegie Endowment," the authors write.
