Russia is hiding scale of economic downturn and squandering its remaining reserves, - FISU
The Russian authorities are trying to hide the real scale of the economic downturn due to the war against Ukraine, using the remaining reserves to keep the economy going.
This is reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (FISU), Censor.NET reports.
According to the FISU, the Russian national welfare fund, which the Kremlin uses to stabilize, is systematically reduced. In early July 2022, the liquid part of the fund amounted to $145 billion, and in May 2025 it was only $39 billion. Since the start of the full-scale war, the decline has almost quadrupled.
The fund's main source of revenue, oil exports, remains under pressure from sanctions. Western restrictions have narrowed Russia's access to traditional markets, and alternative channels have proven to be less efficient and more costly.
The FISU notes that the average price of Brent crude oil is projected to reach $64 per barrel in 2025 and $60 in 2026. For Russia, which finances its budget from oil and gas revenues, this creates critical fiscal risks.
The lack of funds is already affecting key industries: Rosatom's projects are underfunded by 80%, transportation volumes in the railroad industry are falling, and the mining, metallurgical, and construction sectors are experiencing a decline in production. Russian corporations are massively refusing to pay dividends.
"All this indicates large-scale budgetary constraints and loss of financial maneuverability even in strategic industries," the Foreign Intelligence Service emphasized.
Despite this, Moscow publicly demonstrates confidence in the stability of the economy. But propaganda does not change the facts: the resource-based model of the Russian economy is losing its effectiveness. If the current restrictions remain in place and the West tightens control over the circumvention of oil sanctions, Russia risks losing the remaining financial cushion as early as 2026.
