Europe weighing four security guarantee options for Ukraine – The Times
European military leaders are working on a realistic security guarantees plan for Ukraine, one that will have U.S. backing, with just ten days to finalize it.
The Times writes about this, Censor.NET reports.
It is noted that Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the Chief of Defence Staff of the United Kingdom, has traveled to the United States for detailed talks on America’s involvement.
"How bold the Europeans are prepared to be depends on what the U.S. is willing to provide as a deterrent to President Putin. Washington fears that deeper European involvement could escalate the war. An ambitious proposal to form a British-French force numbering tens of thousands to defend key cities, ports, and infrastructure is seen as unlikely, as is the deployment of troops near the frontline," the article notes.
Instead, the so-called "coalition of the willing" is focusing on protecting Ukraine from the air and sea, as well as deploying ground personnel for training to help implement a broader plan for replenishing Ukraine’s armed forces.
The report adds that the U.S. and Europe may ultimately decide that security guarantees do not have to be strictly military. Instead, they could sign an agreement aimed at guaranteeing Ukraine’s safety, with the threat of military intervention only in the event of a breach of the accord. The Times outlines four potential options currently under consideration.
Train troops on the territory of Ukraine
The United Kingdom and France may send thousands of troops to Ukraine to train its armed forces in the relatively safe western region near Lviv. The mission would be coordinated from a command center in Kyiv, headed by a British major general. The forces would provide logistics, weapons, and training experts to help rebuild and reorganize Ukraine’s ground forces.
According to the report, carrying out this training inside Ukraine would be cheaper and more efficient than sending Ukrainian troops across Europe, as is currently the case. The presence of European troops on Ukrainian soil would also send a signal to President Putin that any further attack risks triggering a much wider war.
At the same time, Europe would continue to supply Ukraine with weapons to ensure its readiness to fight should Russia attempt to seize more territory.
The coalition is also expected to conduct air policing missions, flying Typhoon and F-35 aircraft over Ukrainian skies to deter potential Russian attacks. The purpose of these missions would be to reassure Ukraine’s population and help restore international air travel.
Coalition countries would also assist in demining the Black Sea and ensuring safe maritime access to Ukrainian ports. The United States could provide both military and intelligence support, for instance by continuing deliveries of air defense systems, sharing intelligence on potential border violations, and deploying aircraft to neighboring states ready to respond to a Russian attack.
Defending "from above"
Under this scenario, Washington would offer only limited security guarantees, which could make Europe more hesitant to deploy troops inside Ukraine.
Instead, the coalition of the willing would focus on air policing missions and using drones to monitor activity along the border. If Russia were to violate the terms of an agreement, allies could respond with new sanctions. They might also establish a no-fly zone, though such a step would be a long-term commitment requiring significant air power.
"The question leaders must answer is what the rules of engagement would be: if coalition aircraft come under fire, will they be authorized to strike targets inside Russia? Western allies could also threaten to step up arms supplies to ensure Ukraine is ready to defend itself the next time Russia attacks," the report notes.
Expanding NATO’s Article 5
Steve Witkoff, special envoy of Donald Trump, said the U.S. could provide Ukraine with "Article 5–like protection," though he did not yet offer details. Article 5 is NATO’s cornerstone of collective security, under which an attack on one ally is considered an attack on all.
If all coalition countries were to sign an agreement extending such protection to Ukraine, it could be enough to deter Vladimir Putin from attempting another invasion.
Create a security alliance, like with Japan
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested in an interview with Fox News that security relations with Ukraine could be modeled after America’s ties with South Korea or Japan.
The U.S.–Japan relationship is based on the 1960 Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security, which obliges the United States to defend Japan and allows U.S. military bases on Japanese soil. Similarly, Washington formalized its commitment to South Korea in the 1953 U.S.–South Korea Mutual Defense Treaty, which requires both sides to come to each other’s aid in the event of an attack.
