Trump may abandon Ukraine to punish Europe for his failure in Middle East, - Economist
The war against Iran is weakening U.S. President Donald Trump’s political standing, so his reckless campaign is making the situation increasingly dangerous. To demonstrate his leverage, the president may abandon Ukraine and NATO.
This is reported by The Economist, according to Censor.NET.
The War in Iran and Ukraine
The publication notes that the conflict with Iran undermines Trump’s key political advantages, including his ability to shape his own political reality, exert pressure on partners, and maintain control over the Republican Party. The war also contributes to rising oil prices and increased economic pressure.
When Trump called on America’s allies to help open the Strait of Hormuz, warning that NATO faced a "very bad" future if they refused, the Alliance members turned him down. The American president quickly changed course, pretending he had never needed their help.
"Retribution" against Europe and NATO
According to The Economist’s forecasts, a war against Iran could not only cost Trump his influence in Congress but also make his policies as retaliatory and dangerous as possible for the entire world, including Ukraine: "Mr Trump’s politics depends on the strength that comes from winning. If he seems a loser, expect him to exact retribution."
Journalists report that the head of the White House has the greatest freedom of action abroad.
"He may abandon NATO. He may cut Ukraine loose to punish Europe. He could bully Latin America in the name of fighting crime and drugs. He may demand money for defending Japan and South Korea. He will be maximalist on tariffs. Even if he does not succeed, that will further erode America’s alliances, to the glee of China and Russia," the publication predicts.
Domestic policy
Due to the conflict in Iran, Republicans are highly likely to lose control of the House of Representatives in the November midterm elections. The chances of losing the Senate have also risen to 50%. A defeat would turn Trump into a "lame duck."
Currently, dissatisfaction is growing within the party over Trump’s disregard for strategy and his excessive self-confidence.
At the same time, the Republican is also capable of unleashing aggression within his own country:
- Revoke the broadcasting licenses of media outlets that criticize the war.
- New conflicts with the central bank.
- Crack down on migrants in the U.S. and send anti-immigration law enforcement officers to cities run by Democrats.
- Interfere in midterm elections to influence the results.
The publication speculates that if the war drags on, leading to sky-high oil prices and a market crash, Trump may shift his focus to Cuba.
"It is hard to see how Mr Trump ends up a winner in Iran. Be warned: he makes a very bad loser," The Economist concludes.
