61% of Ukrainians oppose ceasefire without security guarantees, - KMIS poll. INFOGRAPHICS
Most Ukrainian citizens do not support a ceasefire without reliable security guarantees.
This is according to a poll by KIIS, as reported by Censor.NET.
Four scenarios
The pollsters prepared four ceasefire scenarios, and respondents were read only one randomly selected scenario.
Each scenario envisaged a ceasefire along the current front line and Russia effectively retaining control over the occupied territories, though without official recognition.
However, the security component differed:
- Scenario No. 1 – "No Security Guarantees." Hostilities cease, but Ukraine receives neither security guarantees nor increased supplies of money and weapons;
- Scenario No. 2 – "Symbolic Presence of European Troops." That is, European troops are stationed in Ukraine, but far from the front lines and will not participate in combat if Russia attacks again;
- Scenario No. 3 – "Own Forces + Allied Resources." Allies provide Ukraine with increased support in the form of money and weapons, such as missiles, etc.;
- Scenario No. 4 – "European Shield." European troops are stationed near the front lines and will participate in combat if Russia attacks again;
Survey results
Thus, if Ukraine does not receive security guarantees and there is no significant supply of funds and weapons, 61% would categorically reject such a proposal for a ceasefire along the current front line. Thirty-two percent would be willing to accept it—mostly reluctantly.
If European troops are stationed far from the front lines in Ukraine—and would not participate in combat in the event of a renewed invasion—then 42% would be willing to accept a ceasefire along the front line.
"Forty-nine percent categorically reject such a proposal. That is, this option is already perceived more favorably than a simple ceasefire, but there are still more opponents," the sociologists noted.
In a scenario where security guarantees are provided in the form of large-scale supplies of money and weapons, 53% would be willing to approve a ceasefire along the current front line.
Thirty-seven percent categorically reject such a scenario. In this case, there are already significantly more people willing to approve this option (than those who categorically reject it).
The option that receives the most support is one in which European troops are stationed near the front lines in Ukraine to repel an attack in the event of a renewed invasion. In this case, 61% would be willing to accept a ceasefire along the front line. Thirty-three percent categorically reject this option.
When broken down by region, attitudes toward the options show almost no variation. In each region, the majority opposes a ceasefire without security guarantees.
Methodology
The survey was conducted from May 7 to June 3, 2026. A total of 2,007 respondents were interviewed.
Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical margin of error for a sample of 2,000 respondents (with a confidence level of 0.95 and accounting for a design effect of 1.3) does not exceed 2.8%. At the same time, an experiment was conducted as part of the survey regarding a ceasefire along the current front line: respondents were randomly divided into 4 subsamples, and each was read a separate ceasefire scenario. Approximately 500 respondents responded to each of the 4 scenarios. The margin of error for such a sample is 5.8%.
