No grounds to believe Russia could open new front against Baltic states, Estonian intelligence says
Current intelligence gives no grounds to believe that Russia could open a new front against the Baltic states, although the Kremlin often resorts to irrational steps.
Ants Kiviselg, head of the Intelligence Centre of the Estonian Defence Forces, said this, Censor.NET reports, citing ERR.
Russia has not achieved its goals in Ukraine
He noted that assessing the threat of aggression is a fairly complex process that requires analysing the current state of the armed forces, the government’s political intentions, and the possibility of carrying out an attack in the international context.
According to Kiviselg, Russia has largely failed to achieve its strategic goals in Ukraine. Even if some of them have been achieved, this happened much later than originally planned.
He added that mobilisation is needed to maintain the pace of attacks in Ukraine.
"Today, even if this mobilisation is being carried out in Russia, there are no signs that these mobilised units will be used in any way against NATO countries. At the same time, the Defence Forces, including the Intelligence Centre, are working every day to prevent a potential war," Kiviselg said.
Russian leadership is unpredictable
He is convinced that there is currently no such threat that Russia could attack the Baltic states or NATO more broadly.
Although there are no signs of an attack, Kiviselg noted that Russia’s leadership is unpredictable and often makes irrational decisions.
"From a rational point of view, it would certainly make no sense for the Russian Federation to open a new front elsewhere in the region. But we have seen that the Russian Federation is not always rational in its decisions and can make strategic miscalculations," he added.
Background
- During an interview for the national telethon, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he linked restrictions on social media in Russia to a desire to contain unrest, likely because of the announcement of general mobilisation.
- He named the Baltic states as possible Russian targets, saying they are "not ready for strong confrontation."
- At the same time, Estonian politicians called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s statement that Russia is preparing mobilisation for an attack on the Baltic states untrue.
- In addition, Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginiene urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to avoid fearmongering rhetoric after his statements about a possible threat of a Russian attack on the Baltic states.
