Europe letting Ukraine down, and war may end on terms that extremely unfavourable for Kyiv, - Politico
Russia's war against Ukraine is likely to end next year — and on terms that are extremely unfavourable for Kyiv.
According to Censor.NET, this is reported by Politico.
Why such a forecast?
Columnist Jamie Dettmer notes that this is due to the fact that last week the EU failed to agree on the use of frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine.
The rejection of the reparations loan proposal deprives Ukraine of guaranteed funding for the next two years.
"It was Belgium’s legal anxieties over the loan, along with French President Emmanuel Macron’s and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s reluctance to join German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in championing the proposal, that doomed it.
And all that, despite weeks of wrangling and overblown expectations by the plan’s advocates, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen," the author writes.
Fortunately, the EU will still provide Ukraine with a significant funding package, agreeing to a joint loan of €90 billion. Kyiv will receive a loan in the form of an interest-free loan secured by the EU budget.
The publication notes that although this will allow Ukraine to avoid running out of funds at the beginning of next year, the aid package is designed for two years, and this will not be enough for Kyiv to continue the fight.
According to International Monetary Fund forecasts, due to the reduction in financial support from the US, Ukraine's budget deficit will reach about $160 billion over the next two years.
"Simply put, Ukraine will need much more from Europe — and that’s going to be increasingly difficult for the bloc to come up with," the author explained.
Still, many European leaders were quite optimistic after the financing agreement was reached last week. Finnish President Alexander Stubb noted that the agreed package is still linked to frozen Russian assets.
"Plus, the thinking goes, a subsequent loan could be added on and indirectly linked to the Russian assets. And maybe so. But this could also be construed as counting one’s chickens before they’re hatched, as everything depends on what kind of deal is struck to end the war," Dettmer added.
Meanwhile, obtaining another loan will not be so easy when Ukraine's budget runs dry again.
Three countries – Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic – have already rejected the joint borrowing programme announced last week.
The author notes that it is not difficult to imagine that other countries that disagree with the idea of another multi-billion aid package in 2027, which is an important election year for both France and Germany, will join them. In addition, US President Donald Trump will still be in the White House, so there is no point in hoping for additional funds from Washington.
Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever called last week’s deal, as a "victory for Ukraine, a victory for financial stability … and a victory for the EU."
Putin sees things differently
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had noted while seeking to persuade European leaders to back the reparations loan: "If Putin knows, that we can stay resilient for at least a few more years, then his reason to drag out this war becomes much weaker."
The author believes that last week's failure of negotiations on frozen assets highlighted the differences between European leaders.
Putin will undoubtedly draw his own conclusions from this, only confirming that time is on his side. What if he waits a little longer, the 28-point plan that his aides developed together with Trump's obliging special envoy Steve Witkoff could be revived, leaving Ukraine and Europe in a difficult position?
The Russian dictator may also be monitoring public opinion polls and seeing growing dissatisfaction among European voters with support for Ukraine in some of the continent's largest economies.
Last week, Politico published a poll showing that respondents in Germany and France may be even more reluctant to support funding for Ukraine than respondents in the United States.
In Germany, 45% of respondents said they would support reducing financial aid to Ukraine, while only 20% were in favour of increasing aid. In France, 37% of respondents would like to provide less aid to Kyiv, while only 24% were in favour of increasing it.
"In the run-up to last week’s European Council meeting, Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal had told POLITICO that European leaders were being handed an opportunity to rebut Trump’s claim that they’re weak. That by inking a deal to unlock hundreds of billions in frozen Russian assets, they would also be answering the U.S. president’s branding of Europe as a "decaying group of nations."
That, they failed to do," the author concluded.
What preceded?
- On Thursday, 18 December, it was reported that European Union leaders had failed to reach an agreement on the use of frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine.
- According to DW, Belgium, Hungary, Slovakia, Italy, Bulgaria, Malta and the Czech Republic opposed the proposed mechanism.
- Subsequently, the EU decided to provide Ukraine with €90 billion in 2026-2027 to support the country's economy, defence and stability.
