IMF expects war to end in 2026, but there are risks
The International Monetary Fund predicts that the active phase of the war could end in 2026.
According to Censor.NET, citing Reuters, the Fund's report also provides for an alternative negative scenario.
Two possible scenarios for how events might unfold
According to the IMF's baseline forecast, gradual stabilisation of the situation is possible as early as next year. At the same time, experts admit the risk of the fighting dragging on until 2028.
This scenario is being considered in the event of a deterioration in the security and economic situation.
The Fund emphasises that further developments will depend on a number of factors, including military dynamics, international support and overall macroeconomic stability.
Likelihood of the war ending
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Earlier, Armin Papperger, head of the German defence company Rheinmetall, said that Russia is not interested in ending the war, so there will be no quick peace in Ukraine this year
. He made this statement on the Table.Today podcast from Table.Briefings.
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NBC News journalists also wrote that the war in Ukraine
is unlikely to end before the summer, despite the expectations of some American political circles.
- However, Reuters reported that the US wants to negotiate
a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in March and hold elections in May.
Despite pessimistic forecasts, Trump's special representative Steve Witkoff said that significant progress had been in the Geneva talks.
