Russia has upgraded its "Iskander" and "Kinzhal" missiles to evade Patriot, - FT
During their shelling of Ukraine, the Russians began using modernised "Kinzhal" and "Iskander" missiles, which can "confuse" and bypass Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems. The interception rate of ballistic missiles by Ukrainian air defences fell from 37% in August to 6% in September.
This was reported by Censor.NET with reference to the Financial Times.
Russia has upgraded its ballistic missiles
According to Ukrainian and Western officials, months of devastating Russian air strikes indicate that Russia has managed to modify its missiles to bypass Ukrainian air defences.
Current and former Ukrainian and Western officials believe that Russia has likely modified its mobile "Iskander-M" system, which launches missiles with an estimated range of up to 500 km, as well as its air-launched "Kinzhal" ballistic missiles, which can fly up to 480 km.
The missiles now follow a typical trajectory, then change course and dive at a steep angle or perform manoeuvres that "confuse and evade" Patriot interceptors.
This "changes the rules of the game for Russia", said one former Ukrainian official. With Kyiv also facing delays in the delivery of air defence interceptors from the United States, the missile campaign has destroyed key military targets and critical infrastructure ahead of winter.
The effectiveness of Ukrainian air defence
Ukraine's ballistic missile interception rate improved over the summer, reaching 37% in August, but fell to 6% in September, despite fewer launches.
On Wednesday, the Ukrainian Air Force reported that all four "Iskander-M" missiles launched at night evaded the country's air defence and hit their targets.
This summer, the missiles seriously damaged at least four drone manufacturing plants in Kyiv and the surrounding area.
In particular, local officials reported an 28 August strike on a facility that manufactures Turkish Bayraktar drones.
Two missiles fired during the strike targeted the offices of a company that designs and manufactures components for unmanned systems, officials familiar with the incident said.
The Russian missiles bypassed Ukrainian air defences and damaged the nearby offices of the EU delegation and the British Council.
Challenges for Patriot systems
Patriot interceptors are the only ones in Kyiv's arsenal capable of shooting down Russian ballistic missiles. Cruise missiles can be shot down using less sophisticated air defence systems, but upgrades to Russian missiles have made this task more difficult.
As a Western official noted, the first sign of modernisation was a noticeable decrease in interception effectiveness. Approaching missiles behave differently in the "terminal phase", deviating from previously established strike parameters.
The assessment is confirmed by a report by the Special Inspector General of the US Defence Intelligence Agency for the period from 1 April to 30 June. According to the document, the Ukrainian Armed Forces "had difficulty consistently using Patriot air defence systems due to recent tactical improvements by Russia, including improvements that allow its missiles to change trajectory and perform manoeuvres."
The report cites examples of attacks on 28 June and 9 July, when Ukrainian air defence forces were only able to shoot down some of the missiles.
Serhii Kyslytsia, Ukraine's first deputy foreign minister, told the Financial Times that the Russians "continue to significantly modernise the technology of their 'Iskander' and other missiles." He stressed the need for Kyiv's partners to block the flow of Western-made components to Russia, particularly via China.
