More than half million men may have left Ukraine during full-scale war, - media
Since the start of the full-scale war, approximately 540,000 men of conscription age have been able to leave Ukraine legally and illegally and not return.
This information was reported by Censor.NET with reference to NGL.media.
At the end of October last year, British journalist Joe Barnes stated in an article for The Telegraph that in just two months, almost 100,000 Ukrainians aged 18-22 had left via the Ukrainian-Polish border. Polish border guards later called this figure exaggerated, as it did not take into account returns and multiple border crossings by the same individuals.
As NGL.media journalists found out, there is indeed a trend of young people leaving Ukraine, including minors, but its scale is somewhat smaller. Between September and November last year, about 78,000 young people aged 18-22 left the country permanently after the government allowed them to cross the border freely.
In general, the scale of the departure of men liable for military service is much greater. According to the publication's estimates, based on an analysis of border crossings, since the start of the war, around 470,000 men have left Ukraine legally and not returned. At least another 70,000 people have crossed the border illegally.
How was it calculated?
Since the State Border Service of Ukraine does not publish detailed statistics broken down by age and gender, journalists asked the border services of Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Moldova to provide monthly data on border crossings by male Ukrainian citizens aged 18-60 for the period from 24 February 2022 to November 2025.
The calculations took into account that the data on entries and exits do not equal the number of people, as one person may cross the border multiple times. At the same time, the difference between the total number of entries and exits for all countries allows us to estimate the number of those who left and did not return.
Through which countries do they leave?
Most often, Ukrainian men leave via Poland, which accounts for about half of all cross-border passenger traffic. According to Straż Graniczna, the difference between entries and exits here is only 2.6%, but in absolute terms, this is almost 188,000 men aged 18–60 who have not returned to Ukraine. This figure includes about 60,000 young men aged 18-22 who left in the autumn of 2025.
At the same time, in Romania and Moldova, the total number of crossings is lower, but the negative migration balance is significantly higher — 13.7% and 10.6%, respectively. In total, Ukraine has lost more than 342,000 men through these two countries.
Slovakia presents an unusual situation: more men are returning to Ukraine across this border than are leaving. It is likely that this is where some of those who left via other countries are returning. September 2025 was an exception, immediately after young men aged 18-22 were allowed to leave.
Hungary refused to provide detailed data, and the official statistics published, according to NGL.media estimates, are incomplete. Therefore, the actual number of departures across the Hungarian border may be higher.
Illegal departure
Illegal border crossings constitute a separate issue. According to the State Border Guard Service, more than 50,000 men have been detained since the start of the war for attempting to leave Ukraine illegally. Some of them die while trying to cross rivers or mountain routes, but many manage to cross the border.
According to the border services of neighbouring countries, the largest number of illegal immigrants is recorded in Romania - over 31,000 cases. In Slovakia, 3,951 cases were recorded, and in Poland - 1,203. Taking into account the routes through Moldova and Hungary, the total number of illegal crossings is estimated at approximately 70,000 people.
Thus, the total number of men who could have left Ukraine during the war, legally or illegally, reaches about 540,000 people.
Departure of young people aged 18-22
After men aged 18-22 were allowed to leave in September 2025, the largest wave occurred in the first month. According to Polish border guards, more than 120,000 young men left for Poland in three months, but more than half of them returned.
During this period, almost 44,000 young Ukrainians left for Romania and about 10,000 for Slovakia, with a significant proportion also returning. The total number of permanent departures in this age group is estimated at 78,000.
Experts note that some young people will return to Ukraine within a few years, but a significant number may remain abroad for a longer period due to security and economic factors. Ukrainian employers are already feeling the effects of this process, particularly in the hotel and restaurant business, where many young people work.
