Contours of peace deal for Ukraine becoming clearer, Trump should ease pressure on Ukraine, - WP
A simple description of what peace in Ukraine should look like: a sovereign state whose borders are protected by international security guarantees, which is part of the European Union and is rebuilding its economy thanks to large investments from the United States and Europe.
This is stated in an article of The Washington Post, Censor.NET reports.
The author notes that despite Trump's tough negotiating tactics and his inexplicable sympathy for the Russian aggressor, such an agreement, judging by the words of American, Ukrainian and European officials, seems to be getting closer and closer.
At the same time, Trump could still ruin the situation by increasing pressure on Zelenskyy and European allies to continue the fight, despite the terrible cost.
"That would be bad for everyone. This is a moment for Trump to reassure Ukraine and Europe, not try to bludgeon them into a settlement," the author believes.
The publication assumes that Trump seems to want to stand equidistant between a democratic Europe and an autocratic Russia, "to mitigate the risk of conflict between Russia and European states."
"That evenhandedness between friend and foe makes no sense, strategically or morally — and it genuinely worries Europe," WP writes.
At the same time, the author notes that Trump's peace efforts are quite promising.
Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are business tycoons, not diplomats, but they seem to understand that the best protection for Ukraine is a combination of binding security guarantees and future economic prosperity.
"And they know the package will fail unless Zelensky can sell it to a brave but exhausted country," he added.
What should a peace plan look like?
Accession to the EU
Ukraine will join the EU as early as 2027. Despite the fact that such a rapid accession worries some EU member states, Trump's administration believes that they will be able to overcome Hungary's resistance. Ukraine's accession to the EU will promote trade and investment.
But perhaps most importantly, it will force Ukraine to control its destructive culture of corruption in state-owned enterprises. Putin hates the idea that Ukraine could become a European state. Therefore, rapid accession to the EU will be a victory.
Security guarantees
The US will provide Ukraine with security guarantees similar to those provided for by NATO Article 5 to protect the country in the event of a Russian violation of the treaty.
Ukraine wants the US to sign such an agreement and ratify it in Congress, while European countries will sign separate security guarantees.
A working group between the US and Ukraine is studying how the details will work and how quickly Ukraine and its allies will be able to respond to any violation of the treaty by Russia.
"The reliability of the U.S. guarantees is arguably undermined by language in the National Security Strategy that seems to erode the NATO alliance, on which the guarantees are modeled.
But the Trump team says it’s committed to continuing U.S. intelligence support for Ukraine, which is the sine qua non of security," the author writes.
"The reliability of US guarantees is likely undermined by language in the National Security Strategy that appears to undermine the very NATO alliance on which those guarantees are based.
But the Trump team says it wants to continue US intelligence support for Ukraine, which is a necessary condition for security," the author writes.
Sovereignty of Ukraine
Ukraine's sovereignty will be protected from any Russian veto, but negotiators are likely still struggling with sensitive issues such as restrictions on the Ukrainian army. Kyiv refuses to accept any formal constitutional restrictions, as Russia wants.
Demilitarised zone
A demilitarised zone will be established along the entire ceasefire line, from Donetsk Oblast in the north-east to the cities of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in the south. Behind this demilitarised zone will be a deeper zone in which heavy weapons will be prohibited. This line will be closely monitored, similar to the demilitarised zone separating North and South Korea.
"Land swaps"
Ukraine and the US are still discussing where the lines will be drawn. Russia demands that Ukraine surrender 25% of Donetsk Oblast without a fight, while the Americans believe that Kyiv will lose these territories in battle within the next six months anyway.
American negotiators have tried various formulas to make this concession more acceptable to Zelenskyy.
One idea is that the zone from which troops are withdrawn will be demilitarised. On Monday, 8 December, Zelenskyy emphasised that he has "no legal right" to cede territory to Russia. One way to resolve this issue is the Korean model - to this day, South Korea claims legal rights to the entire peninsula, and North Korea claims the same.
ZNPP
Europe's largest nuclear power plant will not remain under Russian occupation. The possibility of the United States taking over management of the facility is being discussed.
Investments
One source of economic development will be frozen Russian assets worth over $200 billion, which are currently held in Europe.
Trump's negotiators are proposing to give Ukraine $100 billion of these funds to pay reparations.
The amount may be increased. American investment will also be a more sustainable driver of recovery.
American officials are in talks with Larry Fink, CEO of financial giant BlackRock, to revive plans to create a Ukraine Development Fund that would raise $400 billion for reconstruction. The World Bank will also be involved in this process.
"Trump, to be sure, wants similar investment and reconstruction initiatives for Russia. The premise for Kushner and Witkoff, both devout capitalists, is that countries that trade and prosper don’t make war," the author writes.
The publication notes that instead of trying to force Zelenskyy to sign an agreement, Trump's negotiators should work with European allies to create a package of security guarantees and economic incentives that would be attractive enough for Ukrainians to swallow the bitter pill of giving up part of Donetsk that Russia failed to capture. Otherwise, Ukrainians will continue to fight.
The biggest mistake Trump can make is to insist: "it’s now or never." Diplomacy doesn’t work that way, and good business doesn’t, either. As Trump noted several decades ago, "the worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it. That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you’re dead."
The US peace plan: what is known
According to publicly available information, the peace plan includes, among other things:
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withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from parts of the Donbas region, even those currently controlled by Ukraine;
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restrictions or reductions in Ukraine's armed forces – the first version of the plan proposed reducing the size of the army;
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renunciation of key categories of weapons and reduction of military support from the US;
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equating the Russian language with the status of an official state language in Ukraine and granting special status to religion/the church (mentioning the legalization of structures associated with the Russian church);
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providing Ukraine with security guarantees—similar to the provisions enjoyed by countries protected from attack, if an agreement is concluded.
