Putin may provoke attacks on Moscow on May 9, - Rzeczpospolita
An article in the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita suggests that Russia may be deliberately provoking Ukraine into striking Moscow on the eve of May 9.
According to Censor.NET, the article discusses the Kremlin’s possible political and propaganda objectives against the backdrop of the announced unilateral "ceasefire."
According to the publication, Russia ignored Ukraine’s proposal for a temporary ceasefire and continued hostilities. In Europe and Ukraine, it is believed that such behavior is linked to the Kremlin’s desire to ensure that the military parade takes place without any threats.
Possible provocations and political objectives of the Kremlin
Journalists speculate that the Russian authorities may use potential drone attacks as a tool of domestic policy. Specifically, this involves the possibility of intensifying mobilization measures and testing the loyalty of Putin’s inner circle.
The article also notes that any incident on the day of the parade could be used to accuse Ukraine of derailing potential negotiation processes.
Risks of escalation and Russia's position
The publication suggests that the Kremlin may view further escalation as a way out of a political impasse amid economic and domestic problems. It specifically mentions the risk that incidents could be used to justify new rounds of mobilization or other military measures.
The publication also recalls Russia’s recent threats to strike Kyiv in the event of an escalation.
At the same time, the Ukrainian side has previously stated that Russia continues military operations despite proposals for a ceasefire and is active in various regions of Ukraine, particularly in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, and other regions.
Ukraine, for its part, emphasizes that it will respond in kind to aggression while keeping the door open for diplomatic solutions.
Ceasefire
- As reported earlier, on 29 April, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin held a phone call with US President Donald Trump that lasted more than an hour and a half.
- During the call, Putin announced Russia’s readiness for a ceasefire with Ukraine for "Victory Day," which is celebrated in Russia on 9 May.
- Trump said he had proposed "a little bit of a ceasefire" in the war against Ukraine to the dictator.
- For his part, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stressed that the Kremlin’s proposal for a ceasefire on "Victory Day" on 9 May reflects Russian dictator Putin’s desire to hold the military parade "calmly" and then resume attacks.
- On 4 May, Russia unilaterally announced a ceasefire for 8 and 9 May. Russia’s Ministry of Defense said it expected the Ukrainian side to "follow" its example. If Ukraine launches a strike "with the aim of disrupting Victory Day celebrations," Russian forces will "launch a retaliatory strike on central Kyiv."
- At the same time, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine was declaring a ceasefire from midnight on the night of 5-6 May and would respond in kind if the truce was violated.
- The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the Russian leadership has once again ignored calls to cease hostilities and violated the ceasefire.
Incidentally, China has called on Russia and Ukraine to resolve the conflict "through dialogue and negotiations."
