ISW

Ukrainian forces took positions on left bank of Kherson region, - ISW Russian "militants" have provided enough geographically bound video footage and text messages that confirm that Ukrainian forces have taken up positions on the eastern bank of the Kherson region. 23.04.23 06:20 50 607 139 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine

Kremlin is unlikely to support Prigozhin, uprising will not be successful, - ISW The founder of the "Wagner" PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has launched an armed uprising in an attempt to escape and change the leadership of the Russian Defence Ministry. But the Kremlin is unlikely to support him. 24.06.23 09:02 23 379 124 Previously in trend: Prigozhin's uprising

Putin is not interested in truce with Ukraine and is trying to disrupt military aid, - ISW Although Russian President Vladimir Putin reports an apparent interest in a ceasefire, such rhetoric is in the interests of the Russian Federation and is aimed at delaying and preventing further Western military aid to Ukraine. 24.12.23 10:33 15 211 122 Previously in trend: War

Attack on Black Sea frigate near Sevastopol could have been carried out by Ukraine, it would have been restrained response to large-scale bombing of civilian objects by Russia, - ISW The attack on the "Gryhorovych" class frigate of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation near Sevastopol was probably carried out by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, this is only a restrained response to the bombing of Ukrainian cities. 30.10.22 06:38 30 923 108 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

Russia has increased production of missiles faster than expected - ISW The Russian military has increased its own stockpile of high-precision missiles faster than expected in previous forecasts. 07.11.23 08:50 38 450 108 War in Ukraine

Occupiers seized part of industrial zone in Avdiivka, - ISW Geo-location footage from 26 November indicates that Russian forces have made minor advances northwest of Krasnohorivka (7km northwest of Avdiivka) and in the eastern part of an industrial area on the southeastern outskirts of Avdiivka. 27.11.23 06:47 35 582 103 War in Ukraine

Occupiers are retreating from Kherson, preparing to blow up Kakhovka HPP dam, - ISW Russia probably continues to prepare an operation under a "foreign flag" regarding the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP dam, for which it intends to blame Ukraine. 21.10.22 07:36 36 023 87 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

Putin is creating conditions for protracted war of aggression in Ukraine, - ISW American analysts are convinced that Russian President Vladimir Putin is creating the conditions for a protracted war of aggression in Ukraine. 08.12.22 06:40 18 915 85 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

For two weeks, Russians have not been able to knock out group of 70 soldiers of Armed Forces of Ukraine from under Antonivsky bridge, - ISW The Russian military has been unable to dislodge a small group of Ukrainian soldiers from their fortified positions under the eastern span of the Antonivsky Bridge for almost two weeks. 01.07.23 11:23 32 676 82 Previously in trend: War

Russians have captured administration of Bakhmut and are advancing into center of city, - ISW Russian mercenaries from PMC "Wagner" seized the building of the city administration of Bakhmut. They are advancing towards the center of the city. 04.04.23 08:53 22 874 79 Previously in trend: War

Flights of Russian missiles over Romania are unlikely to increase escalation between NATO and Russian Federation, - ISW The flights of Russian missiles over Romania are unlikely to provoke an escalation between Russia and NATO countries. 11.02.23 07:21 8 644 78 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

Russians used new long-range Italmas drones first time, - ISW During the drone attack on the Kyiv region, the Russian invaders used new long-range Italmas drones and their derivatives for the first time in Ukraine. 25.10.23 06:49 28 601 76 War in Ukraine

Russians in area of Bakhmut found themselves in dangerous situation, - ISW The Russian armed forces, having taken Bakhmut, found themselves in a dangerous situation there, but Russian propaganda and military bloggers hardly talk about it, instead celebrating the victory. 23.05.23 06:58 31 432 75 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine

Due to ineffective sanctions, Kremlin managed to provide UAV production plant with parts, - ISW The ineffectiveness of Western sanctions against Iran and the Russian Federation probably contributed to the fact that the Kremlin was able to purchase components for attack drones in the United States. 07.02.23 07:20 18 160 74 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

"RVC" and Legion "Freedom of Russia" continue operation in Belgorod region, - ISW Units of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC) and the Legion of Freedom of Russia (LSR), which launched an operation in the Belgorod region, could have moved closer to the border with Ukraine after a military clash with Russian troops. 24.05.23 07:13 31 039 72 World

Russian troops continue their offensive on Chasiv Yar and have made some progress: There are virtually no surviving residential buildings in town Russian occupation forces have advanced east of the town of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk region. 01.04.24 12:29 16 987 71 Previously in trend: War

Armed Forces of Ukraine cut Oleshky-Nova Kakhovka road, - ISW Ukrainian forces as of November 9 established continuous control of positions from the Antonivka Railway Bridge north of the Poima to the Antonivka Bridge north of Oleshky (7 km south of Kherson and 4 km from the Dripro River). 10.11.23 15:15 43 464 67 War in Ukraine

Putin is losing control over Russian information space, internal struggle is going on in Kremlin - ISW An internal confrontation is taking place between key members of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s inner circle. 12.03.23 06:48 18 652 63 Previously in trend: War

Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out limited raid across Dnipro and landed on left bank of Kherson region, - ISW Ukrainian troops raided the left bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region and allegedly broke through the defences 800 metres deep and returned 09.08.23 06:44 19 811 62 Previously in trend: War

Prigozhin began series of information operations to oppose himself to Russian authorities, - ISW Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the "Wagner" PMC, began a series of information operations aimed at portraying himself as a hero of Russia in a "crusade" against the petty and corrupt Russian government. 22.01.23 08:01 11 002 59 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

Delays in supply of tanks may prevent Ukraine’s counteroffensive in winter, - ISW Delays in the supply of tanks and armored personnel carriers could cost Ukraine its ability to counter-offensive this winter. Russian forces are preparing to launch their offensive in the Luhansk region and are intensifying their operations in the Bakhmut region. 30.01.23 07:10 10 416 59 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

Troops of Russian Federation are interested in blowing up Kakhovka HPP, - ISW The balance of evidence, arguments and rhetoric indicates that Russia deliberately damaged the hydroelectric power station. 07.06.23 07:02 17 363 57 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

Russian army continues its offensive in Avdiivka direction and has successes in Stepove area - ISW Russian troops continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka sector on 14 December, making confirmed advances. 15.12.23 08:52 18 068 53 War in Ukraine

During his visit to Minsk, Putin will put pressure on Lukashenko and create conditions for new attack on Ukraine, - ISW Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to put pressure on Alexander Lukashenko, who seized power in Belarus, in order to achieve concessions on the integration of the two countries during his visit to Minsk, as well as to create conditions for a new offensive on Ukraine. 17.12.22 08:11 10 439 52 Previously in trend: War

Russian army reduced pace of offensive near Bakhmut after strike of AFU, - ISW Russian forces reduced the pace of their offensive operations near Bakhmut on October 29. 30.10.22 08:01 24 316 51 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

Russians are trying to find new ways to assault industrial zone of Avdiivka, they advanced in several places - ISW The occupants advanced west of the railway and north of Stepove. It is 3 km northwest of Avdiivka. 04.12.23 07:44 9 544 49 War in Ukraine

Russian occupiers will almost certainly accuse Ukraine of undermining Kakhovka HPP dam, - ISW The Russian occupiers will try to blow up the dam of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) and blame Ukraine for the blow-up. 22.10.22 06:40 15 602 48 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

Russian authorities do not know how to react to situation in Belgorod region, - ISW Another raid by the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC) and the Legion of Freedom of Russia (LFR) shows that the Kremlin does not understand how to respond to the situation. In addition, this has caused chaos in the Russian information space, and criticism of the Russian authorities is growing. 05.06.23 06:39 15 756 47 War in Ukraine

Capture of Bakhmut on Russian TV is shown almost like capture of Berlin, - ISW Russia’s reaction to the alleged capture of Bakhmut shows a growing disconnect between the Kremlin’s internal presentation of the war and the coverage of Russian operations in Ukraine by the military blogging community. 22.05.23 08:58 13 818 46 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine

Due to loss of equipment and lack of trained personnel, Russian Federation increasingly relies on infantry during assaults, - ISW Due to the loss of equipment and the lack of properly trained personnel, the Russians increasingly count on "infantry frontal attacks" in the war against Ukraine. 12.11.23 08:26 3 938 41 War in Ukraine

Shoigu is trying to present Ukrainian counteroffensive as failed operation against background of NATO summit, - ISW Russian Defense Minister Serhii Shoigu is trying to present the Ukrainian counteroffensive as a failed operation, despite the Kremlin’s instructions not to downplay the results of the counteroffensive and not to exaggerate Russian successes, to position the Ministry of Defense headed by him as an effective leader of combat operations in Ukraine after the failed mutiny of the "Wagner" PMC. 12.07.23 07:07 8 268 40 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine

Russia is trying to actually block Ukrainian ports, without introducing blockade officially, - ISW The Kremlin does not want to spend its forces on a real blockade of Ukrainian ports, so it takes an ambiguous position to restrain shipping in the region. 29.07.23 11:01 3 011 39 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

Kremlin "concerned" that failures in war in Ukraine could affect results of the elections in Russian Federation, - ISW The failures of the Russian army in the war in Ukraine may negatively affect the results of the Russian presidential election in 2024. 01.12.23 08:18 5 583 39 Previously in trend: War

Putin wants to seize Avdiivka and Kupiansk before presidential elections in Russian Federation, - ISW The enemy army received the task of capturing Avdiivka in the Donetsk region and Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region before the presidential elections in the Russian Federation, which will take place in March 2024. 09.12.23 11:17 7 352 38 War in Ukraine

Russia plans to increase defense spending by $30 billion next year and is trying to hide it from population - ISW In 2025, the Russian government plans to increase defence spending. However, the government is trying to focus on the planned social spending and avoid the topic of increased defence spending. 30.09.24 09:43 5 276 38

Prigozhin promises to send his mercenaries to Belgorod region without permission of Ministry of Defense of Russian Federation, because he considers Belgorod-Ukrainian border to be fairly easy front line for defense, - ISW Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the "Wagner" PMC, said that he is ready to send his mercenaries to the Belgorod region even without the permission of the Russian military command. This may be motivated by a desire for PR, as well as to send forces to a region with relatively less fighting. 04.06.23 09:52 5 019 38 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine

Confrontation between Ministry of Defense of Russian Federation and PMC "Wagner" is intensifying, - ISW US intelligence confirmed the conclusion of ISW experts that the confrontation between the Ministry of Defense of Russia and PMC "Wagner" is intensifying. 21.01.23 08:32 7 504 38 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

Occupiers advanced to treatment facilities of Avdiivka, - ISW On 8 December, Russian troops conducted offensive operations near Avdiivka, Donetsk region. 09.12.23 08:23 28 614 37 Previously in trend: War

Russian army is continuing offensive near Avdiivka and Staromaiorske in Donetsk region - ISW Russian troops advanced in the Avdiivka area over the past day, and confirmed an offensive near Staromayorske in Donetsk region. 01.12.23 09:03 10 908 37 War in Ukraine

AFU intercepted tactical initiative in Bakhmut area, - ISW Ukrainian troops seized the tactical initiative and achieved tactically significant successes in the area of Bakhmut during counter-offensive operations on 18 May. 19.05.23 06:20 16 540 36 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine

Without losses, Wagnerians will not be able to move away from Bahmut, - ISW Fighters of the "Wagner" PMC are in direct contact with Ukrainian troops. Therefore, they will not be able to leave Bakhmut without losses. 21.05.23 08:04 11 936 36 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine

Russia is preparing "hybrid war" in Moldova: it wants to divert attention from Ukraine, - ISW Russia is trying to divert the world’s attention from the war in Ukraine. For this, the aggressor country plans to destabilize the internal situation in neighboring countries. 03.12.23 10:21 7 231 35 World

AFU are conducting counteroffensive in four directions, - ISW The defence forces continue to advance near Bakhmut and have made some progress in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. 10.06.23 10:38 19 099 35 Previously in trend: War

Russian Army will intensify its offensive in early 2024 - ISW In January-February 2024, weather conditions will become more favourable for the movement of armoured vehicles, making it easier for the occupiers to conduct offensive operations. 22.12.23 06:45 15 776 34 Previously in trend: War

Russia probably signed contract with Iran for supply of "Arash-2" drones, - ISW Russia could agree with Iran on the delivery of "Arash-2" drones. 16.10.22 09:11 14 200 33 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

Offensive of Russian Federation is approaching its climax, - ISW American analysts suggest that Russia’s offensive in Donbas may be approaching its climax, and Ukraine has the opportunity to seize the initiative and launch a counteroffensive. 20.03.23 06:55 23 666 32 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

AFU are approaching next line of defense of Russians in south, - ISW The defence forces have made further tactically significant gains in the western part of Zaporizhzhia region, and are likely to advance through the most difficult series of defensive positions of the Russian occupiers. 27.08.23 07:50 18 839 31 Previously in trend: War

Russia planned large-scale missile attack on Ukraine in anticipation of Zelensky’s speech at G20, - ISW The Kremlin prepared a massive November 15 missile strike on Ukraine before President Volodymyr Zelensky presented his 10-point peace proposal at the G20 summit. 16.11.22 08:01 9 293 30 Previously in trend: War