ISW

Military of Iran takes direct part in attacks of Russian Federation on civilian objects of Ukraine, - ISW Moscow continues to use its relations with Tehran to provide military support to Ukraine. Iranian personnel directly help attack civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. 14.02.23 08:31 13 818 30 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

AFU should continue counteroffensive, taking advantage of Putin’s mistake, - ISW The AFU should take advantage of the mistake of the president of the aggressor country, Vladimir Putin, who "drives" his troops to conduct offensive actions, analysts of the Institute for the Study of War believe. 14.11.22 09:59 18 022 28 Previously in trend: War

Providing tanks to Ukraine by Western countries will help defeat Russian army and liberate Ukrainian territories, - ISW Modern main battle tanks, which the NATO coalition will send to Ukraine, will allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to defeat Russian troops and liberate Ukrainian territory. 25.01.23 06:29 5 155 28 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

Russian army has allegedly captured positions in Zaporizhzhia region, which Ukrainians repelled during summer counteroffensive, - ISW Russian troops have recently advanced in the west of the Zaporizhzhia region. Ukrainian forces withdrew to more defensible positions near Robotyne for the winter. 28.12.23 07:43 19 660 28 War in Ukraine

Russia has not changed its goals regarding Ukraine and is not interested in honest negotiations, - ISW Russia is seeking a temporary cease-fire in order to build up its forces, restore the army, and in the future continue aggression at an even greater pace. 28.12.23 09:22 2 605 26 Previously in trend: War

Lack of ammunition at front and delays in Western aid are already forcing AFU to save resources, this may affect upcoming counter-offensive operations of Ukraine, - ISW The lack of artillery ammunition, combined with delays in providing security aid from the West, probably already forces the Armed Forces to save weapons and may delay future Ukrainian counteroffensive operations at the front. 19.12.23 09:38 3 127 25 Previously in trend: War

Prigozhin probably found allies in Ministry of Defense of Russian Federation, who support freezing war in Ukraine, - ISW Yevgeny Prigozhin calls on the Kremlin to end the so-called "SMO" and focus on entrenching Russian forces in the occupied territories, which may indicate that the founder of PMC "Wagner" has found allies in the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation who support a temporary freeze on the war in Ukraine. 22.04.23 06:50 9 304 25 World

Ukrainian forces are effectively restraining Russian troops in Bakhmut region, which prevents Russian Federation from conducting offensive actions in other directions, - ISW American analysts believe that the defense of Bakhmut is a strategically correct operation, despite the price that Ukraine pays. 22.01.23 07:15 4 874 25 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

Defense forces entrenched themselves on left bank of Kherson region, - ISW The Ukrainian military is conducting large-scale ground operations on the left bank of the Dnipro River. Defence forces managed to advance to Krynky. 15.11.23 07:20 17 249 25 Previously in trend: War

Russian troops face number of serious problems when attacking Avdiivka, - ISW From the reports of a number of military bloggers, it can be concluded that the Russian Federation is facing a number of serious problems during the offensive on Avdiivka. 15.10.23 08:16 9 765 24 War in Ukraine

Russian offensive has begun in Luhansk region, but Ukrainian forces are preventing enemy from making significant progress, - ISW The pace of Russian operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line in the west of the Luhansk region has increased over the past week. 09.02.23 06:30 22 904 24 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

AFU achieved local success in Zaporizhzhia region - ISW During counterattacks southwest and southeast of Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia region, Ukrainian forces achieved localised success, according to geolocation footage from 10 June 11.06.23 07:43 23 520 24 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine

Russian Federation began to redeploy more experienced combat units to Kursk region - ISW The Russian authorities have deployed additional units of the 106th Airborne Division in the Kursk region and may begin redeploying more experienced combat units to support their current counterattacks and future counteroffensive operations against Ukrainian forces on Russian territory. 13.09.24 09:27 4 795 24

Putin began appearing more often in public to improve his own image, which has been worsened by failures of the Russian army in Ukraine, - ISW Russian President Vladimir Putin’s resumption of public speaking probably indicates that he has become more concerned about his popularity and image in Russia. 24.12.22 07:39 3 297 23 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

ISW assessed probability of terrorist attack on ZNPP and named scenarios that occupiers may resort to The Russians are unlikely to deliberately create an accident at Zaporizhzhia NPP, as they will not be able to control its consequences. However, the experience with the Kakhovka HPP shows that the occupiers may resort to such a terrorist attack. 01.07.23 07:29 13 184 23 Previously in trend: War

Kremlin is creating informational prerequisites for attack under foreign flag on Belgorod region, - ISW The Kremlin is creating informational prerequisites for an attack under a foreign flag in the Belgorod region of Russia. 23.11.22 06:39 11 996 23 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

Belarus is unlikely to invade Ukraine, - ISW The invasion of the Belarusian army into Ukraine is extremely unlikely. 12.12.22 06:25 12 183 23 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

Russia is in hurry to organize new offensive in time for arrival of Western military aid in Ukraine, - ISW The military command of the Russian Federation is in a hurry with a new large-scale offensive in order to carry it out before Ukraine receives Western heavy equipment. 07.02.23 10:35 6 020 23 Previously in trend: War

Prigozhin hopes to profit from Russia’s defeat in Ukraine, - ISW The owner of the "Wagner" terrorist group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, believes that the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces will be successful, so he is preparing to take advantage of its consequences. 15.04.23 17:08 11 441 22 World

Russian troops slow down offensive near Bakhmut, - ISW The advance of Russian troops in the area of Bakhmut has slowed down in recent days. Russian troops have admitted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have pushed back the Wagner group to the positions they held a few days ago. 25.12.22 06:38 15 323 22 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

ISW: Putin failed to agree with Xi Jinping on desired partnership According to the results of the negotiations with the President of the People’s Republic of China, Xi Jinping in Moscow, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin was unable to secure the closer bilateral partnership with China that he could have hoped for. 22.03.23 09:11 12 870 22 World

Russian army tries to encircle Ukrainian defenders in Pokrovsk direction - ISW As part of the offensive to capture Pokrovsk, the Russian army is currently conducting two tactical operations. The occupiers are trying to  encircle Ukrainian positions between Myrnohrad and Hrodivka. 30.08.24 07:59 7 708 22

Pace of offensive operations in east of Ukraine will increase in coming weeks, - ISW American analysts are convinced that the overall pace of military operations in eastern Ukraine is likely to increase in the coming weeks. 04.12.22 06:52 18 577 22 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

Occupiers continue their offensive in Avdiivka direction, - ISW The Armed Forces of Ukraine repelled Russian ground attacks in several sections of the Avdiivka direction. On November 25, Russian troops captured new positions near Avdiivka. 26.11.23 07:50 8 003 22 Previously in trend: War

Instead of capturing Bakhmut, Russians are now preparing for counteroffensive of AFU, - ISW The priorities of the Russian Ministry of Defence have changed. Now, the main thing for the Russians is not the capture of Bakhmut, but preparations for a counter-offensive by the Defence Forces. 06.05.23 07:24 13 743 21 Previously in trend: War

Putin is trying to form anti-Western coalition at UN. China will not join, - ISW The new concept of Russian foreign policy, approved by Putin, is aimed at creating a potential anti-Western coalition. But he could not convince China to join this association. 01.04.23 09:39 5 533 21 World

Russian army in Kupiansk direction has moved forward, is regrouping and intensifying its attacks, - ISW In the Kupiansk sector, Russian troops continued ground attacks along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and are completing the regrouping of forces. Geo-location footage shows Russian troops advancing east of Synkivka, so they may soon increase the pace of offensive operations in the area. 23.11.23 06:43 20 117 21 Previously in trend: War

Russian units that escaped from Bakhmut have already been defeated twice in Kharkiv and Kherson regions, - ISW The 72nd Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade of the Russian Federation, whose units were defeated near Bakhmut by Ukrainian defenders from the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, had previously suffered two crushing defeats in Kharkiv and Kherson regions. 11.05.23 06:23 9 100 21 War in Ukraine

Russian troops are preparing for new wave of attacks near Avdiivka, - ISW Near Avdiivka, the Russian army, despite heavy losses in equipment and manpower, is preparing for a new wave of attacks. 02.11.23 06:19 7 056 20 Previously in trend: War

Russian Federation is transferring troops from Kherson region to Donetsk direction, - ISW Russian troops are likely to transfer troops to the Donetsk region after leaving the right bank of the Kherson region, in order to intensify operations around Bakhmut, Donetsk, and in the west of the Donetsk region. 15.11.22 06:28 10 257 20 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

Tactical advance of Russian army is recorded in Toretsk sector. - ISW The Russian invaders continue their offensive towards Chasiv Yar in Donetsk region and have made a significant tactical advance in the Toretsk sector. 06.08.24 09:18 5 198 20

Mobilization in Russia has not stopped, another wave is being prepared, - ISW American analysts believe that Russia is preparing another wave of mobilization, which will worsen the overall quality of Russian troops who are being sent to the front in Ukraine. 19.11.22 06:12 10 547 19 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War Mobilization in Russian Federation

There is no invasion of Belgorod region by Ukraine, there are raids - ISW The Russian Defense Ministry said that the military had prevented an attack on the Belgorod direction from Ukraine. However, ISW analysts point out that military doctrine defines such actions as raids 02.06.23 07:38 7 797 19 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine

Russian army makes insignificant advances on five directions - ISW Advances of Russian invaders were recorded near Kupiansk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Novomykhailivka in Donetsk region and Novoprokopivka in Zaporizhzhia. 20.12.23 06:56 11 586 19 War in Ukraine

Russians have minor advances around Avdiivka, - ISW Russian troops continued their offensive near Avdiivka on 13 December and made confirmed advances. 14.12.23 06:59 5 792 18 Previously in trend: War

In near future, Putin may announce second wave of mobilization in Russian Federation, - ISW American analysts believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin may announce a second wave of mobilization in Russia in the coming days, and perhaps even on January 18. 18.01.23 06:29 8 709 18 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

Putin overestimated capabilities of Russian army, occupiers will not be able to capture Donbas until March, - ISW Russian President Vladimir Putin once again overestimated the capabilities of the Russian armed forces. Analysts found no evidence that the occupiers had regained sufficient combat power. 03.02.23 07:26 7 479 18 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

Russia may use civilian vessels to transport weapons across Black Sea - ISW According to Article 19 of the Montreux Convention, Turkey has not allowed warships to pass through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits since 28 February 2022. 12.12.23 14:57 2 098 18 War in Ukraine

With statements about readiness for negotiations, Russian Federation is trying to weaken Western support for Ukraine, - ISW Spreading public statements about readiness for negotiations with Ukraine, the Russian Federation is once again carrying out an information operation aimed at weakening Ukraine’s support for the West. 28.05.23 15:24 3 674 17 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

Russians continued offensive near Avdiivka and had partial success - ISW Ukrainian troops continued to conduct offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction and inflict losses on the enemy. Russian forces in the Avdiivka area lost 585 people over the past day, but they continue offensive operations in the area. 09.11.23 08:35 12 096 17 Previously in trend: War

Armed Forces of Ukraine can gain foothold on Kinburn spit and continue counteroffensive from there in Kherson region, - ISW Russian defensive positions indicate that the occupiers perceive the prospect of a Ukrainian counteroffensive across the Dnipro River as a serious threat. 28.11.22 06:23 12 450 17 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War

Putin did not offer to negotiate with Ukraine, - ISW Russian dictator Vladimir Putin did not offer to hold talks with Ukraine on December 25, contrary to some reports. 27.12.22 09:46 13 301 17 Previously in trend: War

Russia resorts to ethnic cleansing in Ukraine - ISW Russia’s actions in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, reported by Russian officials, fall under the definition of ethnic cleansing. 16.10.22 20:03 13 240 16 Previously in trend: War

Defense forces achieved tactically significant successes in Bakhmut area, - ISW On 7 July, Ukrainian Armed Forces units achieved tactically significant successes near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region and continued counter-offensive operations in at least three other areas of the frontline. 08.07.23 07:24 8 169 16 Previously in trend: War

Russia is creating conditions for offensive to begin in coming months, - ISW Russia is creating conditions for the start of offensive actions in the coming months. Probably, this scenario will be deployed in the Luhansk region. 31.01.23 06:45 12 906 15 Previously in trend: War

Russians send new waves of personnel and equipment for offensive in Avdiivka area, despite heavy losses, - ISW The Russian command considers Avdiyivka and its surroundings a potential destination for a new Russian offensive along with offensive operations along the border of the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. 22.10.23 09:10 9 393 15 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine

Putin is trying to mislead West by talking about different goals in Ukraine, - ISW The Kremlin probably hasn’t given up on its maximalist goals in Ukraine, despite Kremlin spokesman Dmytro Peskov admitting for the first time that Moscow’s current territorial goal is to fully seize the four partially occupied regions of Ukraine. 09.12.22 06:25 10 824 15 Previously in trend: War

Former Wagnerians are being recruited to Chechen units, - ISW The Russian Guard is recruiting former fighters of the private military company "Wagner" to the Chechen units of the "Akhmat" special forces. 29.10.23 08:49 2 849 15 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine