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Vadym Skibitskyi, a key figure in Ukraine's Defense Intelligence, has provided in-depth analysis on Russia's military strategies and capabilities. Among the recent developments, Russia's focus on deploying the Rassvet satellite system shows their strategic interest in counteracting systems like Starlink. Furthermore, production of Kinzhal and Kh-32 missiles has been halted, indicating a shift towards other weapon systems, including a notable increase in Iskander missile production, with up to 60 units produced monthly. Skibitskyi highlights that despite resource allocations, Russia's desire to conclude the war by 2026 is due to its inability to match global powers like the U.S. and China. Meanwhile, improvements in missile technology and UAV expansion pose ongoing threats to Ukraine's critical infrastructure and energy sectors. The analysis underscores the importance of vigilance and strategic planning to counteract evolving Russian tactics.
What are Skibitskyi's views on the end of the Ukraine war?
Vadym Skibitskyi suggests that Russia aims to end the conflict by 2026, driven by the challenges of maintaining a war effort that prevents it from reaching the geopolitical influence of countries like China and the U.S. Despite efforts to bolster military production, sustainable engagement has become difficult.
How has Russia's missile production changed, according to Skibitskyi?
Skibitskyi reports that Russia has increased its Iskander missile output, reaching up to 60 per month, while halting production of Kinzhal and Kh-32 missiles to focus on other arms. This shift highlights a strategic adaptation in response to resource management issues and battlefield requirements.
What new threats does Russia's military pose?
According to Skibitskyi, Russia's development of the Rassvet satellite system is a significant threat, as it aims to offset systems like Starlink. Concurrently, improved missile technologies and drone warfare adaptations signal a heightened threat to Ukraine's energy and defense infrastructures.
What insights did Skibitskyi provide about Russian military recruitment?
Skibitskyi notes a daily drafting rate of 1,000-1,200 people in Russia amid rising dissatisfaction with forced mobilization, reaching nearly 70%. This highlights ongoing internal challenges in maintaining troop levels for prolonged military operations.
How is Ukrainian intelligence preparing for potential threats?
Ukrainian intelligence, as highlighted by Skibitskyi, is actively analyzing cyberspace and military developments to preempt threats, particularly in responding to Russia's upgraded missile technologies and evolving strike strategies against critical infrastructure targets.
What is the significance of the Rassvet system in Russia's strategy?
The Rassvet system represents Russia's strategic initiative to develop its own satellite network, potentially rivaling systems like Starlink. This development underscores Russia's commitment to enhancing its military and communication capabilities independent of Western technologies, reflecting a broader shift in how it conducts warfare.
What role does Skibitskyi see for international collaboration in countering Russian tactics?
Skibitskyi emphasizes the need for international coordination in intelligence sharing and sanctions enforcement to curtail Russia's military advancements, particularly in missile technology and drone production, thereby enhancing Ukraine's defensive capabilities and global support.
How have Russian missile capabilities evolved in recent years?
Skibitskyi's analysis notes that Russian missile capabilities have evolved through upgrades in technology and increased production, particularly of Iskander and Kalibr missiles. These advancements highlight Russia's strategic focus on long-range precision strikes as a pivotal element in its military doctrine.
News Skibitskyi Vadym
DPRK sends another 8,500 troops to Russia, including UAV operators for strikes on Ukraine – DIU Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence said that North Korea had sent a new military contingent of 8,500 personnel to Russia. 1 931 19 Previously in trend: DPRK forces Cooperation between the DPRK and Russia
There will be no agreements or signing of peace treaty by end of this year, - DIU The Main Intelligence Directorate sees no signs that Russia is prepared to cease fire and enter into full-scale negotiations 7 050 51 Previously in trend: Ending the war
Russia is launching its own version of Starlink sooner than expected, - DIU of MoD Russia is actively deploying its own version of Starlink—the "Rassvet" system, which is expected to consist of 924 satellites by 2035. 9 094 74 Previously in trend: Blocking Starlink to occupiers
Russia has suspended production of "Kinzhal" and Kh-32 missiles, - DIU of MoD Russia has suspended production of the "Kinzhal" and Kh-32 missiles, redirecting resources to other missiles. 11 954 31 Previously in trend: production of ballistic missiles in russia
Russia produces up to 60 Iskander missiles per month, - DIU Russia is ramping up production of Iskander missiles and intensifying its attacks on Ukraine. The Main Intelligence Directorate has reported a shortage of Patriot systems and a threat to critical infrastructure. 3 321 36 Previously in trend: production of ballistic missiles in russia
Russia plans to produce up to 120,000 glide bombs by end of year – DIU Russia plans to produce up to 120,000 cheap glide bombs by the end of 2025, including 500 new munitions with a longer strike range. 4 055 43 Previously in trend: russia increases weapons production Shahed production in Russia
Russia launches mass production of aerial bombs with strike range up to 200 km – DIU Russian occupying forces are ramping up serial production of aerial bombs, including the Grom-1 and Grom-2 models, and introducing new standardized guidance modules. The range of these bombs reaches up to 200 kilometers. 8 425 98 Previously in trend: KAB shellings Countering guided aerial bombs
Russia has improved missile weapons and drones and is changing its strike tactics - Skibitskyi Russia has upgraded its missile weapons and drones used to attack Ukraine. We must prepare for new combined strikes. 3 309 28 Previously in trend: Massive rocket attack
Russia wants to end the war in Ukraine by 2026 - Skibitskyi Russia predicts the end of the war in Ukraine by 2026, as the prolonged confrontation makes it impossible for it to reach the level of the United States and China. 5 284 14 Previously in trend: Ending the war
Russia maintains high level of production of X-101 and Kalibr missiles – DIU Russia currently maintains a high level of missile production, including X-101, Kalibr and Iskander. 14 080 24 Previously in trend: production of ballistic missiles in russia
Russia plans to increase production of "Kinzhal" and ballistic missiles for Iskander - DIU By 2025, the enemy intends to increase the production of Kinzhal air-to-ground ballistic missiles and ballistic missiles for Iskander tactical missile systems. 2 907 23 Previously in trend: production of ballistic missiles in russia
North Korean military actively participates in combat actions in Kursk region again - DIU After suffering heavy losses, North Korean troops have resumed participating in the fighting at the front in the Kursk region, gaining new combat experience using modern technologies. 2 046 5 Previously in trend: Combat operations in the Kursk region DPRK forces
Russia is preparing for offensive in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions - Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Russian troops continue preparations for assault operations in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, not ruling out the possibility of active hostilities in these areas. 9 241 45 Previously in trend: Hostilities in south
Russia plans to launch 500 UAVs at time, - DIU. VIDEO The Russian occupiers have significantly increased the production of various types of drones. 6 740 37 Previously in trend: Attack of UAVs Russia increased UAV production
1,000 DPRK soldiers are undergoing training on new military equipment - Skibitskyi North Korean army soldiers are quickly adapting to modern warfare. 2 280 2
Almost 580 thousand occupiers take part in combat actions against Ukraine, - the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine The ground forces of the Russian army, which are taking part in hostilities against the Ukrainian Defence Forces, amount to almost 580,000 people. 1 289 7 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War
Russia is preparing new propaganda operations in Europe against Ukrainian refugees - DIU The Russian Federation is preparing new "anti-Ukrainian information" operations in Europe, aimed in particular at Ukrainian refugees. The goal of Russian propaganda is to persuade people who left because of the war not to return to Ukraine. 2 319 8
Russia is unlikely to be defeated on battlefield, such wars can only end with treaties - Skibitskyi Currently, Ukraine has no way to defeat Russia on the battlefield alone. Even returning to the 1991 borders did not stop Russia’s aggression. 37 830 445
Russia has about 950 high-precision missiles in stock. Russia plans to carry out 2-3 more massive strikes on Ukraine’s energy sector this spring - DIU The DIU believes that Russia is planning to conduct several more massive strikes against Ukraine’s energy sector this spring. However, its stockpile of missiles is depleting, so it will again need a pause to build up. 8 759 64 Previously in trend: War
Russians have at least 260 "Kalibr" missiles at their disposal, in April they plan to produce 30 more units - DIU Russian troops have been stockpiling "Kalibr" missiles, and currently they have at least 260 of them. 1 248 5
Russia plans to produce 2.7 million shells in 2024 - DIU Last year, Russia produced about 2 million rounds of 122 mm and 152 mm ammunition, and in 2024 the occupiers plan to produce 2.7 million rounds. 3 607 32 Previously in trend: War
Russians form corps from former "Wagner" soldiers near Avdiivka - DIU Russia is forming a new corps of volunteers, which will include former Wagnerites. They are already operating in the area of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region. 2 631 5 Previously in trend: War
North Korea shipped 1.5 million artillery munitions to Russia - DIU North Korea has already sent to Russia one and a half million artillery munitions produced in the 70s and 80s 8 312 52 Previously in trend: War
Russians are not capable of attacking Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Sumy now - DIU Russia does not currently have the forces to launch a major offensive in the western strategic direction. 5 025 44 Previously in trend: War
Enemy has deployed 48 Iskander launchers along the border with Ukraine, - Skibitskyi As of 21 February, Russia deployed 48 Iskander missile launchers along the Ukrainian border. 5 870 32
Russian X-101 missiles differ from those used in 2022 - Skibitskyi The Deputy Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, Vadym Skibitskyi, stressed that Russians learn quickly enough and dismissed the possibility of a "blind" defence. 9 632 20
Russia lacks reserves to simultaneously conduct powerful strategic offensive operations - DIU The reserves that the Russian Federation currently has are not enough to simultaneously conduct powerful strategic offensive operations. 2 919 23
Russia needs up to 10 years to restore potential of ground forces and up to five years to restore arsenal of high-precision weapons – DIU Russia failed to achieve the goals it set for itself. Ukrainian defenders have significantly reduced the potential of the Russian Federation. 2 392 19
DPRK hands over to Russia about one million artillery shells of 122-mm and 152-mm caliber - DIU North Korea has been actively supplying Russia with ammunition throughout the fall of 2023. According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia has already received approximately one million 122-mm and 152-mm artillery shells from the DPRK. 12 461 32 Previously in trend: War
Russians produce about 115-130 strategic missiles and 100-115 missiles of operational-tactical class per month - DIU The Russians failed to significantly increase the production of missiles of various classes. But the figures may vary from month to month. 5 250 67
Russia has 500 thousand shells shortage. Deficit will remain despite purchases from Iran and DPRK – DIU The Russian industry has not been able to cope with the shortage of shells. It will not be possible to overcome it even through purchases from Iran and the DPRK. 2 823 21 Previously in trend: War
As of January 2024, 462,000 Russian occupiers are fighting on territory of Ukraine, - Defence Intelligence Currently, the group of Russian ground forces fighting in Ukraine is 462 thousand people, while the staffing of enemy units is 92-95%. 3 357 16
Russia calls up about 1,000-1,200 soldiers to army every day, - Defence Intelligence In Russia, 1,000-1,200 people are drafted into the army every day. At the same time, the level of dissatisfaction with forced mobilization increased to almost 70%. 3 548 25 Previously in trend: War
Russia has increased production of missiles faster than expected - ISW The Russian military has increased its own stockpile of high-precision missiles faster than expected in previous forecasts. 38 672 108
Russia is trying to restore and increase production of weapons, in 2024 occupiers plan to produce 2.1 million ammunition, - Defence Intelligence In 2024, the Russians plan to produce 2,100,000 ammunition, but they will not be able to do this without outside help from other countries. 2 625 52
Now there are about 75 "Kinzhals" in Russian Federation, occupiers are changing their attack tactics, - Defence Intelligence In a month, the Russians can produce about six Kinzhal ballistic missiles. 7 125 55 Previously in trend: War
Ukrainian intelligence is looking for facilities for production of military UAVs in Russian Federation in order to strike them with "kinetic" strikes, - Defence Intelligence Ukrainian intelligence determines where components for military drones are manufactured on the territory of the Russian Federation, in order to then carry out "kinetic actions" on these objects and, together with partners, strengthen sanctions against the supply of these components. 4 592 66
At least 585 missiles remain in Russia, - Defence Intelligence The Russian invaders have at least 585 missiles with which they can attack the territory of Ukraine. This is without taking into account the Kh-22 missiles. 6 239 80 Previously in trend: War
Enemy is currently studying vulnerable places of energy facilities of Ukraine and location of air defense systems for optimal attack tactics in fall, - Defence Intelligence The Russians are analyzing Ukraine’s energy facilities, vulnerabilities, and the location of air defense systems to choose the optimal routes, tactics, and approach for missile strikes this fall. 1 640 6 Previously in trend: War
Russian Federation is trying to accumulate stocks of long-range weapons, - Defense Intelligence Russian occupation forces are now trying to stockpile long-range weapons in order to continue shelling Ukraine. 3 428 17 Previously in trend: War
Russian propaganda is aimed at undermining unity of Ukrainians and spoiling relations with partners, - Skibitsky The main tasks of Russian propaganda at the current stage are to destroy the internal unity of Ukrainian society, to undermine trust between Ukraine and our partners, in order to stop military aid. 3 652 77
Russian Federation will try to attack energy system of Ukraine again in fall, we are preparing for this - Defence Intelligence Ukraine is preparing for possible repeated attacks by the Russian Federation on energy in the fall and winter. 1 898 19 Previously in trend: War
Russia has increased the production of "Kalibers" and Kh-101 by 3-4 times, - Defence Intelligence The production of "Kalibers" and Kh-101 increased 3-4 times, now it is even more than the pre-war indicators. 10 631 123 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War
Most foreign components are in Russian "Iskanders" and "Kindzal", - Defence Intelligence The largest number of foreign components, on which the Russian Federation critically depends, in two products - "Iskander" and "Kindzal". 2 469 7 Previously in trend: War
Russia produces 25 "Kalibr", 2 "Kinzhal", 35 Kh-101, 5 9M723 ballistic missiles for Iskander-M per month, - Defence Intelligence Russia managed to establish the production of missiles, despite international sanctions. 12 735 176 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine
Invaders moved most of warships from Sevastopol to territory of Russian Federation in order to avoid their destruction, - Defence Intelligence The occupiers in Crimea are equipping positions to protect against any attacks, including the heavily guarded base in Sevastopol and other military facilities. 4 255 11 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine
Russia can still wage war in 2023 - 2024 at most, - Defence Intelligence The deputy head of the Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Vadym Skibitsky, said that Russia can wage war for another two years. 6 538 52 Previously in trend: Russian aggression against Ukraine War
Russians are preparing for defensive actions on territory of occupied Crimea, - Defence Intelligence Intelligence constantly monitors everything related to the activities of the military group on the territory of the temporarily occupied Crimea. 3 167 19 Previously in trend: Occupied territories - Crimea and Donbas War
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